England vs Italy betting tips: Euro 2025 semi-final prediction and bet builder

England are seeking to reach back-to-back European Championship finals and their third successive title decider at a major tournament when they face Italy in the Euro 2025 semi-finals on Tuesday (8pm, ITV1).

England came through a dramatic penalty shootout win over Sweden to take their place in the last four, with Lucy Bronze and Hannah Hampton among the heroines as they overcame a 2-0 deficit from the first half.

But Sarina Wiegman will know that her side needs to be far better if they’re going to have any hope of winning the competition, and that starts on Tuesday against Italy.

Though the Italians, who scraped through against Norway with a 90th-minute winner, are not quite as accomplished a side as Sweden, the Lionesses will be wary of underestimating them, with the Azzurre playing their first semi-final in this competition just three years after turning professional.

Nevertheless, it is England who are the favourites to go through in Geneva, with football betting sites offering Women’s Euros odds of 1/4 for the Lionesses to qualify versus 11/4 for the Italians.

Though the Lionesses are firm favourites ahead of the semi-final, they will be wary of the Italians, who will be playing their first semi-final in this tournament for 28 years.

In fact, the country's national federation only approved professional status for their players in 2022, with this semi-final marking the next step in a remarkable rise for the Azzurre.

Though they will be understandably fired up, the fact remains that the squad doesn’t possess the same level of talent as that of the Lionesses, as shown in the draw with Portugal and narrow win over Belgium.

But while England should certainly qualify for the final, they are unlikely to have it all their own way, as shown against Sweden.

The Lionesses have conceded goals in all but one of their matches at the tournament so far, with the goals against Wales and Sweden particularly worrying from a defensive point of view.

It is perhaps unlikely that England will make as slow a start as they did in the quarter-final, but Italy could well capitalise if they do.

Their own recent draw with Sweden in May – despite a squad with less talent than the Swedish – shows that they can punch above their weight.

To that end, we’re going with a wager on England to win but both teams to score, which is offered at 11/5 with various betting sites.

England vs Italy prediction 1: England to win & both teams to score - 11/5 Virgin Bet

Though Alessia Russo has emerged as England’s key goalscoring threat, her performances against the Netherlands and Wales illustrated why she has become such a key member of Wiegman’s side, with the Arsenal striker proving an irreplaceable number nine with her hold-up and link play.

Though Russo was unable to score against Sweden, she frequently played a part in England’s most promising attacking moves and subsequently dispatched her penalty in the shootout.

Though the 26-year-old has scored just one goal so far in the tournament (against Wales) she has registered three assists and could get more opportunities against the Azzurre, and perhaps this is her moment to steal the headlines once again, as she did at this stage in 2022 with that memorable backheel.

England vs Italy prediction 2: Alessia Russo to score or assist - 4/5 William Hill

We’ve pulled together an England vs Italy bet builder using the above predictions. When combined on one slip it pays out at 16/5 with Bet365.

Leg 1: England to win Despite some nervy moments against Sweden, England’s overall quality should give them the edge again in Geneva. They’ve reached this stage for a reason and are strong favourites to book a second straight Euros final.

Leg 2: Both teams to score England have conceded in three of their four games at Euro 2025, while Italy have found the net in every match so far. With both teams likely to create chances, BTTS looks a solid inclusion.

Leg 3: Alessia Russo to score or assist Russo has been central to England’s attacking play all tournament. Her strength in link-up play and presence in the box gives her every chance of registering a goal or assist in this semi-final clash.

Virgin Bet: Bet £10, get a £5 free bet

Football fans looking to have a bet on the action in Geneva can secure a £5 free bet by wagering on the semi-final with Virgin Bet.

The offer requires bettors to stake £10 or more on England vs Italy at minimum odds of evens and within one hour of that bet being placed, Virgin will credit users with a £5 free bet.

The free bet can be used on any sportsbook market, so long as the selection has odds bigger than 1/100.

NetBet: Get a £5 free bet

NetBet are giving customers who wager £5 or more on a pre-match England vs Italy bet builder with at least 3 selections at odds of 3.00 or above a £5 Free Bet

Make sure to get your bet in before the 20:00 kick-off. The free bet will be credited once it’s placed.

You’ll then have 7 days to use your £5 free bet on any sport.

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