Super Bowl LX prediction & NFL betting tips: Darnold & Smith-Njigba to lead Seahawks to glory

The Seattle Seahawks take on the New England Patriots at Super Bowl LX this Sunday, with both teams having come from nowhere to contest the Vince Lombardi trophy at Levi's Stadium in the space of 12 months (11.30pm, Channel 5 & Sky Sports Main Event).

Six-time champions New England are the joint-most successful team in NFL history but the days of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are now behind them and it looked a long way back to the title game when going 4-13 last season.

However, under head coach Mike Vrabel and with quarterback Drake Maye leading a new generation on the field, the Pats are looking to etch their own names in the franchise’s storied history after a narrow Conference Championship win over the Broncos.

Both teams will travel to California for a rematch of Super Bowl 49, and while the Pats won 28-24 in Phoenix in 2015, they head into this game as 4.5-point underdogs in the handicap market on betting sites.

Seattle have won just one of their three Super Bowl appearances in the past – against the Broncos in 2014 – but they have been one of the dominant teams in the NFL this season.

The Seahawks followed up a 41-6 demolition of the 49ers with a 31-27 win over the Rams in the NFC Conference Championships, and they are heavy favourites to take home a second Super Bowl title in the NFL odds.

Neither of these sides were among the leading contenders to contest the Super Bowl at the start of the season but both have emerged as worthy candidates and deserving winners of their respective conferences, with the Patriots earning a narrow win over the Broncos and Seattle battling to a similarly close victory over the Rams.

The Patriots are well-versed at this stage of the season, with Vrabel’s team arriving at their 12th Super Bowl looking to become the outright most successful side in NFL history, with a win on Sunday taking them to seven Super Bowl victories.

The underdogs will be led by QB Maye, who is an MVP candidate after leading the NFL in completion percentage (72 per cent) and yards per attempt (8.93) in just his second season as a pro. New England remain the best team in the NFL in passing offence, with 0.23 EPA per play, and Maye will be aided by a supporting class including RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who has 58 touches and 280 yards in the three postseason games so far.

However, the early odds are stacked in favour of the Seahawks, with NFL betting sites clearly thinking Mike MacDonald’s side are going to be tough to beat when setting the point spread at -4.5.

Seattle have emerged as the ‘best’ team (on paper at least) in the NFL, winning the NFC West and earning the No. 1 seed before their play-off wins over the 49ers and the Rams. This rejuvenation was led by a brilliant defence, which allowed the fewest points in the NFL in the regular season at just 16.4 per game.

In fact, the Seahawks have gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher – despite facing the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams multiple times in that spell – and ranked sixth for total yards and third for rushing yards conceded. In addition, opponent success rate on designed runs against Seattle is 34 per cent (as per ESPN), which is also the lowest in the NFL.

With Maye having already been sacked 15 times this postseason, the Patriots offensive line could find itself under contest duress if the Seattle defence can deliver on the big stage.

And while the Seahawks have an impressive defence, their offensive unit has done well, led by offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. QB Sam Darnold looked like a risky addition in the offseason after melting down in the playoffs with the Minnesota Vikings last year, but he was brilliant against the Rams last time out and finally has a big performance under pressure to add to his CV, throwing 346 yards for three TDs a fortnight ago.

He is helped by a strong supporting cast of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker – who both scored TDs in the NFC Championship game – with WR Rashid Shaheed also able to contribute.

Overall, it feels like the Seahawks are the more capable team across the board, boasting standout playmakers who give them different ways to win the game in both offence and defence.

Super Bowl LX prediction 1: Seattle Seahawks -4.5 - 10/11 BetMGM

Quarterbacks have won seven out of the last 10 Super Bowl MVP awards, and the odds on betting apps suggest this honour is likely to be a shootout between Drake Maye and Sam Darnold.

Accordingly, the respective QBs are the two favourites to be awarded Super Bowl MVP, with Darnold offered around 5/4 and Maye at 43/20, of course reflecting their respective team’s perceived chances of winning on Sunday.

Both players ranked in the top five for passing yards (with Maye fourth and Darnold fifth), though Maye’s performance level has dropped during the postseason, with the 23-year-old sacked 15 times across his three games while only managing to throw for 86 yards (while completing 10 passes) in a snow-affected AFC Championship match.

Conversely, Darnold banished some previous demons with an impressive display in the win over the Rams in the NFC Championship game. While his stats occasionally look less impressive, he usually registers lower totals only when the job has already been done by his team’s defence – he has only registered under 200 passing yards six times this season, and five of those games saw an average margin of victory of 22 points.

In addition, Darnold has been more impressive stats-wise in the postseason, with a 0.38 EPA/DB and a 122.4 passer rating over his two games.

Darnold has certainly benefitted from Kubiak’s offensive set-ups, as evidenced by his budding partnership with Smith-Njigba (himself an outside shot at MVP with odds of 5/1), and his confidence will be renewed after the display against the Rams.

If Seattle are to win as predicted, Darnold will likely play a key part in the victory, and while an outside shot – such as Smith-Njigba or even a defensive player – could offer more value, it may be best to stick with the QB MVP trend.

Super Bowl LX prediction 2: Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP - 23/20 Bet365

Smith-Njigba is coming to the end of a career year as the Super Bowl approaches, and has developed an impressive two-man deep game with QB Darnold that has become one of the Seahawks’ major offensive plays.

The 23-year-old lines up as the best receiver among the two teams, having led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,793 across his 17 games. He has also led his team in receiving in 17 of 19 games, while he has reached 92 yards in 14 of 19 games (and he’s backed at 10/13 to reach at least 90 on Sunday).

Smith-Njigba has scored 10 TDs across the regular season and another two over the postseason, and he may see more passing work with the Seahawks have lost their pass-catching running back Zach Charbonnet to an ACL injury.

Seattle QB Darnold often resorts to running much of the offensive play through Smith-Njigba, as evidenced by the youngster having 153 receiving yards and 10 receptions against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are one of 11 teams that’s allowed an average of one touchdown per game to wide receivers, so with Smith-Njigba likely called upon throughout the game against a more vulnerable Pats defence, he could find plenty of joy at Levi’s Stadium this weekend.

Super Bowl LX prediction 3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score anytime TD - 1/1 SpreadEx

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