Australian Open women’s singles final prediction: Madison Keys to push Aryna Sabalenka all the way

Aryna Sabalenka faces Madison Keys in the women’s singles final at the Australian Open in Melbourne on Saturday morning (live from 8.30am, Eurosport).

Defending champion Sabalenka is looking for her third Australian Open title in a row – having won here in 2023 and 2024 – as well as the fourth major title of her career.

And the Belarusian looks in fine form ahead of the final, having beaten 11th seed Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2 in the semi-finals.

Sabelenka will face 19th seed Madison Keys for the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, with the American having produced one of the shocks of the tournament to beat Iga Swiatek in a final-set tiebreak to secure a dramatic 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (10-8) victory.

The 29-year-old Keys is making just her second ever major final appearance, having lost the 2017 US Open final to Sloane Stephens, and betting sites have her as the clear underdog, pricing her at 11/4 to get the win.

While Sabalenka is the overwhelming favourite at 2/7 with tennis betting sites, Keys’ semi-final victory has already shown that she is more than capable of pulling off an upset in Melbourne.

Despite a slightly shaky start to her semi-final, Sabalenka eventually cruised through against Badosa, with the 6-4, 6-2 win showcasing the dominance that led her to two hard court majors in 2024 – both in Melbourne and at the US Open in September.

The 26-year-old has only dropped one set so far in the tournament – against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter-finals – despite not necessarily being at her best and her experience will be just as important as her ability on Saturday.

In addition, the ease with which the Belarusian has won means that she has only played one three-set match at the tournament, compared to Keys’ four consecutive three-set matches.

Nevertheless, Keys is in some of the best form of her career, having beaten second seed Swiatek in the semi-finals. She is on an 11-match winning streak too and hasn’t had it all her own way in Melbourne, showing impressive composure to eventually beat Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina in earlier rounds.

However, Sabalenka has the better record in the head-to-head, having won four matches to Keys’ one. To that end, it might prove good value to wager on Sabalenka to win, but not in straight sets, and betting apps are offering 5/2 for the defending champion to win 2-1.

Australian Open women’s final prediction 1: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2 sets to 1 - 5/2 William Hill

With Sabalenka as the overwhelming favourite, there aren’t many markets offering value with single bets ahead of the final.

Instead, it may make sense to construct a bet builder if we want to find value from the prospect of Sabalenka earning victory.

With the Belarusian backed at 2/7 to take home her third Australian Open title in a row, wagering on the circumstances of the win could prove god value.

Backing Sabalenka to win but not in straight sets takes the odds to 5/2, while adding that the match will not go to a final-set tiebreak gives you odds of 3/1.

If you are backing Sabalenka to win but not in straight sets, this bet builder simply adds that you are betting that the match will not go all the way – in other words, Sabalenka will win the third set without it going to 6-6.

Considering that Sabalenka has won all three of her hard court meetings with Keys, and has only lost three of her last 38 matches on this surface, it certainly makes sense to back the defending champion, though Keys won’t go down without a fight at the Rod Laver Arena.

Australian Open women’s final prediction 2: Sabalenka to win, not in straight sets, match won’t go to final set tiebreak - 3/1 Bet365

Bettors should always follow responsible gambling practices. Even the most knowledgeable tennis punter can lose a bet, so always stick to a budget and never chase your losses.

When using gambling sites be aware that sports betting can be addictive so please take steps to remain in control of your time and budget. The same applies whether you’re using new betting sites, slot sites, casino sites, casino apps, or any other gambling medium.

It’s particularly important not to get carried away by any free bets and casino bonuses you might receive, which are available in abundance on gambling sites, but must be approached with caution.

You can stay in control by making use of the responsible gambling tools offered, such as deposit limits, loss limits, self-exclusion and time-outs.

You may also want to visit the following free organisations to discuss any issues with gambling you might be having:

We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.