Ashes Fifth Test Australia v England: Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds

So, it was possible then! Yes, as predicted, England pulled off a win that I thought was within them at the MCG and at least gave those of us who were there something to cheer about after what had gone before.

Having witnessed that match in the flesh, the pleasure at seeing Ben Stokes’ team succeed was also tempered by a feeling of what might have been, as well as a concern for the future of this format.

Those are debates for other days but first, as we have done after each match in this Ashes series, let’s take a look back at my betting predictions from the previous match.

If you followed all six selections I made, then congratulations, as you will certainly have turned a profit once again.

The chief reason for that profit was my fancy for Josh Tongue to win the player of the match award. Although we only had a 0.5pt win, it returned an SP of 25/1! I hope you were on both that and, naturally, the suggestion that he’d be England’s top bowler. He was 18/1 when I wrote that about him and I suggested 1pt to win.

He did the job at 3/1, so again, I hope you were on early. Into the bargain, I’d had a slight fancy that England would get one back and they duly obliged with a 9/4 success to a 1pt stake.

I was kicking myself that, having tipped Harry Brook to be top England batter in the first three Tests, I deserted him in favour of Joe Root and yes, you guessed it.

And before you think I’m doing too much back slapping, I’ll take 2pt losses on that, plus Mitch Starc to be top Aussie bowler (he just missed out) and Steve Smith to be top home batter on the chin.

Overall, a £1 stake would have brought you a return of £14.25 to SPs (or £29.25 if you nailed Josh Tongue’s 18/1 to be top bowler early), so it was a very Happy Christmas.

For my tuppence, this is the trickiest match of the five to predict. The SCG is the ground on which England has enjoyed its great number of Test wins in Australia, 22 of them to be precise. The most recent of those came on their last triumphant away tour, in 2010/11.

The Aussies have won 27 times in Sydney, while the most recent of the eight draws there came four years ago. Draws have not been in the vocabulary of the current England set-up and, to my mind, that remains the least likely result.

At the time of writing, photos from the SCG suggest it’s going to be another green seamer, much as was the case at Melbourne. However, my moles still out there seem very confident that it’s all a red herring and that the pitch will look different when the first ball is bowled and there’ll be much less grass on it.

Remember, Cricket Australia lost an estimated AUS $10m when the MCG’s match lasted just two days and common sense would suggest they’ll want this to go the distance, to attempt to recoup some of that deficit.

That could bring spin into it more, perhaps than at any time in this series and for Australia that may mean a recall for Todd Murphy, who England will surely try to attack. The flip side to that is that he could also pick up wickets.

The tourists haven’t played a front line spinner in the entire series, relying on part-timers Will Jacks and Joe Root to get them by when needed. If there is a Test where they might finally play Shoaib Bashir, then this could be it.

Spinners have a fine record on the ground, with Shane Warne, Stuart MacGill and the injured Nathan Lyon being three of the four leading Test wicket takers here. While that’s noted, a glance at Murphy’s record suggests he’s not in that class.

The way has gone about this series, I can’t see Bashir getting the nod and I think they’ll rely on seam, with Jacks and Root again coming into play to help out. Matthew Potts has had to bide his time for a Test return but with Jofra Archer and Mark Wood already back home and Gus Atkinson the latest casualty due to a hamstring strain, he looks nailed on to get the nod.

He's a very good bowler and, although not as quick as the likes of his Durham teammate Brydon Carse, or Josh Tongue, he’ll nag away and pick up wickets. However, I’m with Tongue again to do the main damage for England.

A young player on a high, having become the first England seamer since Dean Headley in 1998 to be named player of the match Down Under, he is taken to play a prominent role again.

You’ll recall that my series score prediction was 3-2 to Australia and that is still a possibility. However, if the series has taught us anything, it’s that England’s ability to win longer matches against this opposition can be questioned (they managed to get to day five at Adelaide but still lost that game at around 2.15pm).

With the likelihood being that this pitch’s green tinge will be completely shaved off by the start, I think the hosts will again be in the driving seat, although you’ll note that I’m less confident about that than in any of the four previous matches.

There’s no Pat Cummins again but Scott Boland and Michael Neser have wickets in them, while Mitchell Starc has had a great series. I’m backing the Aussies to take care of business with a win at the SCG, although they’re a best price of odds-on on the best betting sites.

Result: Australia to win – 1pt win @ 8/11 (QuinnBet)

I’m sticking with Steve Smith for this one. He didn’t produce the goods for us in Melbourne but this is his home patch and he’s scored almost 1,100 Test runs here alone at 64.47, including four hundreds and seven fifties from just 19 innings.

He’ll certainly do for me even though he has not been at his best in the series. A price of 10/3 on cricket betting sites looks good for a player with such a formidable record at the SCG.

Top Australia batter: Steve Smith 2pt win @ 10/3 (Bet365)

Mitchell Starc has done us a favour or two during the series but this is, historically, his worst performing ground of the five in this series. Instead, I’m with Scott Boland.

On my trip to see both the Third and Fourth Tests, I’ve been able to watch Boland from both side on and almost straight on. His run-up isn’t a short one but despite that it’s a beautifully measured, economical approach to the crease.

He’s impressed me with his consistency on pitches he knows well. England supporters will recall his devastating debut figures of 6-7 on this ground on the last Ashes tour and he also took his first ten-wicket haul in Test cricket here, against a very good India team last January.

Top Australia bowler: Scott Boland 3pts win @ 9/4 (Coral)

He’s found it tough again on this tour but has also come up with his first hundred in Australia. That Test average has suffered as a result, dipping back below 51 for the first time in a while.

However, I am sticking with the former England skipper. It could well be his last tour in Australia. Root turned 35 earlier this week and will be 39 by the time the sides next meet Down Under. Although he did get his maiden ton in Australia in the second Test, he still has yet to pass three figures against the red ball and has only passed fifty once on tour.

A favourable batting track could allow him to thrive and sign off with a solid series under his belt. Odds of 2/1 are available for him to top score for England in the first innings on betting apps.

Top England batter: Joe Root 1pt win @ 2/1 (Betway)

As mentioned earlier, I’m sticking with the Nottinghamshire fast bowler to come up with the goods again here. In two Tests, he’s done nothing but enhance his position as a leading Test fast bowler for England in the coming years.

Top England bowler: Josh Tongue 1pt win @ 10/1 (BetMGM)

If you plan to have a bet on the fifth Ashes Test, make sure to gamble responsibly.

It’s vital that bettors take steps to remain in control of their time and budget when using gambling sites. The same applies whether you’re using online bookmakers, slot sites, casino sites, casino apps, or any other gambling medium.

Even the most knowledgeable racing punter can lose a bet, so always stick to a budget and never chase your losses.

It’s particularly important not to get carried away by any free bets or casino offers you might receive, both of which are available in abundance on gambling sites, but must be approached with caution.

You can stay in control by making use of the responsible gambling tools offered, such as deposit limits, loss limits, self-exclusion and time-outs.

You may also want to visit the following free organisations to discuss any issues with gambling you might be having:

We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.