Is 2025 going to be wine’s annus horribilis?

The astronomer Galileo summed it up beautifully when he said, “Wine is water, held together by sunshine.” I sincerely hope that the sun isn’t setting on a product that has been an inspiration for art and literature, and is a thing of beauty that continues to bring pleasure to many around the world.

Tracing its history back nearly 7,000 years, it has weaved its way through society’s triumphs and failures unlike any other product. Wine can tell the story of a place and its people; it encompasses politics, economics and sociology. The narrative of wine regions can be deciphered through its physical environment and the wealth or otherwise of those places. It encapsulates fashions and trends that have been ebbing and waning for thousands of years. It is a lifeblood of civilisation.

On a personal level, it has given me some of my greatest memories and experiences through its people and landscapes that create it, the food that I’ve shared, and the unforgettable moments of unbridled joy as a result of a sip from a glass.

Yet, this year, my beloved wine may be facing some of its greatest challenges in its thousands of years of history. Will 2025 be wine’s annus horribilus? Am I being dramatic? I don’t think so.

In France alone, beer has overtaken wine as the most consumed product in the home – if this is happening in France, then wine really must be in trouble.

Overall, the global trend in wine consumption has been downward over the past 27 years. Data published by IWSR showed that in the UK alone, after a per capita peak in 2009, on a per adult basis, the UK now drinks about 14 per cent less wine than in 2000. This is largely due to an increase in the “moderation” trend, which we can be in no doubt is a good thing. Enjoying wine or indeed any alcoholic beverage in moderation is central to a long, and sustainable relationship with alcohol.

The trend is being largely driven by Gen Z. “Sixty-seven per cent of wine drinkers aged legal drinking age (LDA) say they have been moderating their alcohol consumption. This proportion gradually decreases with age, to 61 per cent of millennials, 49 per cent of Gen X and 43 per cent of Boomers.” And whilst I am a light to moderate drinker, I definitely believe that all people of legal drinking age should have the opportunity to discover the joy that wine can bring.

But there is so much noise in the world of alcoholic beverages. There has been a staggering increase in the number of drinks available to consumers, from beers (craft and standard), spirits, liqueurs, ready mixed cocktails, no-and-low – and every variation in between. It is easy for wine to get lost in the melee.

Whilst it is a product that has been around for millennia, it doesn’t mean that it has necessarily evolved in a progressive way to entice new drinkers. Wine has, maybe, been a little too complacent. Our tastes and preferences have changed, and there has been a shift away from big, bold, heavy reds to lighter styles of white and rosé.

Yet, due to climate change, it is increasingly difficult to moderate alcohol levels, especially in the hot, baking summers that we have seen in continental Europe and around the globe in recent years. A report in Nature Reviews: Earth and Environment stated that “about 90 per cent of traditional wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the century because of excessive drought and more frequent heatwaves with climate change”. The existential threat posed by climate change to the wine industry (and indeed the planet) simply can’t be ignored any longer.

I have written before about my fear of neo-prohibitionists, and their dominance in influencing the global health debate. In the past week, the US surgeon general, Vivek Murthy, has stated his desire to overhaul the warning messages on alcohol products to be similar to those of tobacco products. He wishes to emulate the stance that Ireland recently took when they became the first country in the world to mandate a warning linking any level of alcohol consumption to cancer.

And, indeed, perhaps we will see more countries following the actions of Canada – when last year it revised its recommendation from nearly two drinks per day to two per week. Wine needs to fight back, and not be bullied into a corner.

Then there is the punishing new wine duty system that comes into effect on 1 February this year. Wine will be taxed on a sliding scale based on its alcoholic strength, replacing the current flat rate of £2.67 for wines between 11.5 and 14.5 per cent ABV. This will see a bottle of wine with 14.5 per cent ABV increase in duty from £2.67 to £3.09. Unfortunately, it will be unsustainable for wine businesses to absorb these rises.

It comes on top of a raft of other costs that they will be facing including the government’s Extended Producer Responsibility scheme, which aims to shift the costs of recycling and recovery of packaging to businesses using it. It is likely that you and I, the consumer, will feel the impact in both price and choice.

The future may appear dark, but I have to remain hopeful. Wine is an enduring and glorious product which, when consumed in moderation, brings immense joy and pleasure. And these two words – “joy” and “pleasure’” – should not be underestimated in the power of good that they bring.

There is the deeply social aspect of wine – the delight of connecting with friends and loved ones over a table of good food and a glass of wine is unrivalled. The only sunset I want to see this year is with a glass of wine in hand, surrounded by some dear friends, toasting the bright future of a product that I hope will be around for many millennia to come.

Rosamund Hall (DipWSET) is a freelance writer, presenter and columnist specialising in wine and spirits as well as travel, lifestyle and parenting