If Mumsnet is now backing Reform UK, it’s over for Starmer’s Labour

Forget Donald Trump, Israel, antisemitism and the polls... the biggest threat to Keir Starmer right now is mums.

That’s right, the ladies of Mumsnet are for turning after all, according to a new survey that reveals how Reform UK is now the top choice for the site’s politically engaged, historically left-leaning mothers.

The social networking platform – which, at 8 million users, comprises the largest online parenting network in the UK – had for two decades or so traditionally gravitated towards Labour. But now, the shocking survey says, 20 per cent of users plan to vote for Nigel Farage’s party in the next election. And the biggest reason for the shift? Anger about taxes, welfare reform, the NHS and immigration.

The sensational U-turn puts the party ahead of Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems, mimicking recent polls like this one, which show Reform’s popularity at around 27 per cent, with both the Conservative Party and Labour trailing behind at just 17 per cent. The Mumsnet political poll first began in 2009 – but in a stinging indictment of Starmer’s leadership, this is the first time that Labour has been overtaken by any other party.

If you’re asking yourself how Starmer got it so wrong, you’re not the only one – but I don’t think this is simply “damaging” for Labour, I think it is a death knell; a turning point. Bigger than any other. Lose Mumsnet and you’ve lost the next election.

After all, analysis of the outspoken site was a huge predictor of voting intention in the 2016 referendum and correctly predicted Brexit; the 2010 election was branded the “Mumsnet election” and saw all major party leaders taking part in webchats in an effort to gain the “Mumsnet vote”. They are campaigners, and influencers, and they’ve put together electoral manifestos (including in 2024, when a group called for clarity on the meaning of “women” in the Equality Act); they’ve even gone head-to-head with world leaders, including Boris Johnson.

Watching Labour topple from the Mumsnet throne feels a lot like the time Tony Blair was heckled, jeered, booed and slow-clapped by an audience of 10,000 women at the WI in the year 2000. The then prime minister’s attempt to use the Women’s Institute’s national conference to present Labour as a party of “traditional values in a changing world” backfired spectacularly – and earned him not just tuts but jibes in the Commons from the then Tory leader William Hague, who said, painfully and truthfully: “It is the mark of an out-of-touch prime minister that you don’t know why you’re out of touch.”

To my mind, it’s not just Starmer who’s misguided – but those Mumsnet users who would pledge allegiance to Farage, too. By all means feel let down by Labour for its lacklustre leadership, its rowback on protecting workers’ rights, trans rights, the elderly, disabled people and those on welfare; for failing to condem the war in Gaza fast enough and in strong enough terms; for its demonstrable incompetence in handling the economy; its shift to the right – and now, for Starmer’s insipid refusal to call out Donald Trump for his flagrant, oil-inspired, greed-grab of Venezuela. The Labour Party has disappointed pretty much everyone – not just its loyal followers.

But believing that Reform UK is the answer (and that Farage is anything other than a truly dangerous option as prime minister) is a little like grabbing that chocolate teapot and expecting it to withstand the searing heat of Britain’s debt problem and our crushed economy. If Mumsnet users are now buying into sensationalist, anti-migrant, openly racist rhetoric – and if that’s being role-modelled to our children – that’s something to be deeply ashamed of.

I’m not surprised, actually, that the dark underbelly of Mumsnet – those who are transparent school-gate racists, hiding in plain sight – has finally been laid bare. The tone of the site has changed dramatically in recent years, for much the worse. Many have swapped tolerance for overt transphobia, inclusion for isolationism. It feels inevitable that they’d fall for the charms of that seductive, “swarms of migrants”-bleating snake-oil salesman, Farage. He plays right into the heartland of Mumsnet’s little England, cosplaying in a middle-class suit.

I’ve seen it firsthand, living in a Labour-run, leafy enclave of London: the veneer of the “woke liberal” only stretches so far. And for many of these champagne socialist mums, it peters out completely as soon as they reach their forties. For rather than living by their ideals, many mums preach openly about the dangers of “entitlement” and “equality”, then send their kids to private schools on the sly (and then moan about Labour’s 20 per cent VAT levy on fees).

They claim to welcome diversity in Britain and tolerance to immigration, while spamming the neighbourhood WhatsApp group because they spotted a “suspicious-looking person” on their Ring doorbell footage (no surprises, it is always a person of colour). They are the ultimate Nimbies: they go online or on marches to profess solidarity with Palestine – even, on occasion, slinging a keffiyeh over the top of their Ganni shirt – only to turn towards a party whose leader denies genocide in Gaza and says he would not support suspending weapons exports to Israel. It is hypocrisy on the high street.

It’s not all – I salute those Mumsnet members who are still left-leaning and always will be; who live by the ideals the site was built on – but a 20 per cent shift to Reform UK is far too many. It is a landslide for Labour that will harm us all and propel us even further into “little Britain”. They may just as well string up a St George’s flag next to the public notice for their loft extension (but they wouldn’t because that’s “tacky”, see).

Still, there are those who would say “this is Britain, wake up and smell the racism”; who would call liberals like me “woke” and “idealist”. And they’re right. If most people think the way Farage thinks and we’ve just refused to acknowledge it, then the joke’s on us for holding out for something better.

But what about sticking to your principles? The members of Mumsnet used to be good at that.