The surprise winner of the ‘least unpopular’ PM prize? Ed Davey!

Of all the possible combinations of parties in a hung parliament, the one the most voters want is Ed Davey as prime minister in a coalition between the Liberal Democrats and Labour, according to a YouGov poll.

Although this would be the most popular option, it might make more sense to describe it as the “least-unpopular” option, because only 36 per cent of voters would support it. But, then, that is more than voted Labour last time, so by comparison this hypothetical Davey government would enjoy a strong democratic mandate.

Davey’s popularity – or lesser unpopularity – is a tribute to the inoffensiveness that secured the Lib Dems their biggest parliamentary representation since the Liberals in the 1920s.

It may also tell us a lot about how our new five-party system is going to work at the next election. Voters tell YouGov that they would prefer a government formed by a single party – but if they split their votes five ways, the chances are that they will end up with a hung parliament. In that case, which leaders and parties that voters don’t mind could be as important as which ones they positively want.

On present trends, obviously, the chance of Davey moving into No 10 is small. The Lib Dems are currently fifth of the five parties, and although they are good at translating their vote efficiently into seats, they are unlikely to be the largest party.

But the chances of the Lib Dems being part of a “rainbow alliance” of parties forming a government to keep Nigel Farage out of power are much higher.

Another likely member of the rainbow alliance would be the Green Party, whose leader Zack Polanski takes a more aggressive approach to coalition-building than Davey.

In his exclusive interview with The Independent today, he goes into some detail, listing Labour leaders with whom he is prepared to do post-election deals. Keir Starmer is off the list (for “purging” socialists from his party), as are Wes Streeting (for resorting to “name-calling” in his dispute with the doctors) and Shabana Mahmood (for fuelling “anti-migrant rhetoric”).

“I feel it would be easier to work with someone like Angela Rayner,” he says, even though she is “tarnished” by her previous role in a government, under which children were “pushed into poverty”. His first preference would be Andy Burnham – but he doesn’t think he will get into parliament.

I am sure his supporters, especially recent “socialist” defectors from Labour, love this tough talk, but it is all rubbish.

What is he going to do if Starmer, by some miracle, is still leader at the next election, and Green MPs have to decide whether to vote to keep him as prime minister or to put Farage in No 10? “You are just as bad as each other, so we will allow Farage to go to the palace”? I don’t think so.

Polanski and Davey will face less romantic options than dictating who gets to lead rival parties. In such a situation, they will have to decide what form of support to give what is likely to be a Labour-led government.

Davey’s members know from recent experience what tends to happen to junior partners in coalition governments. They will want an arms-length deal, by which they agree to keep the government in office and to vote for its budgets, but reserve the right to vote against it otherwise. Davey himself and most of his MPs, on the other hand, are desperate to be ministers. Green Party members are likely to be even more suspicious of their MPs taking ministerial office in a Labour-led government.

On the other side of the right-left divide, Kemi Badenoch may face even more difficult choices in a hung parliament. That YouGov poll suggests that a coalition of Reform and the Conservatives, with either Farage or her as prime minister, would be more unpopular than most of the “rainbow” options – which is unsurprising, given how Reform and Tory supporters feel about each other.

But, given that the most likely make-up of a hung parliament is currently one in which Reform would be the largest party, needing Tory support to form a government, Badenoch must have given more than a moment’s thought to the mirror-image of the same dilemma that might face Davey and Polanski.

Should she go into coalition with Farage, which would probably be a precursor to eventual merger and a takeover of the Tories by Reform? Or, rather than being responsible for killing her party stone dead, should she prop up a Farage government from the outside, hoping the Tories will survive and eventually recover as an independent force? Either way, will she really opt to go down in history as presiding over the end of the most successful party of the democratic age?

It is fun but pointless to speculate so far out from the next election, although the chatter about coalitions is likely only to get louder – and it would not be surprising if Ed Davey ends up, maybe not as prime minister, but at least as deputy prime minister.