Labour drops behind Tories for first time since election ahead of make-or-break May vote

Labour has fallen behind the Conservatives in the polls for the first time since the general election, despite a new year relaunch for the party ahead of make-or-break elections in May.

Labour is on 17 per cent, only two points ahead of the Greens and behind the Tories, on 19 per cent, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, on 26 per cent, according to a YouGov poll for The Times.

The party is also just one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats, on 16 per cent, with the Greens on 15 per cent, the survey conducted on Sunday and Monday shows.

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The timing is a blow to Sir Keir Starmer, who used a long interview on Sunday morning television to try to woo voters with a new campaign against the high cost of living.

In a sign of the difficulties his embattled government faces, however, he also warned rivals inside Labour not to move against him, saying that would “gift” Mr Farage the next general election, as speculation over the PM’s future mounts.

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Labour faces potentially disastrous results in the local, Scottish and Welsh elections in May.

At the end of October, leading polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice warned Labour is “in severe trouble in Wales” after the by-election loss of the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly. There have been similar warnings over the elections to Holyrood and councils across England.

The polling will also make it harder for Sir Keir to win over his increasingly disgruntled MPs, who have forced a series of difficult U-turns on the government, most recently over the farmer inheritance tax before Christmas.

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The poll was better news for the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, signalling the first time her party has overtaken Labour since their devastating landslide election defeat in 2024.

Sir Keir has called for cabinet discipline at the meeting of his top team and told senior ministers that their challenge for 2026 is to show “hard work, focus and determination” will help squeezed households.

As Donald Trump’s US continues to threaten Greenland, Sir Keir said: “Yes, there’s a world of uncertainty and upheaval, but tackling the cost of living remains and must remain our focus.”

He added: “At the next general election we will be judged on whether we’ve delivered on things that really matter – do people feel better off, are public services improving, for which they will look to the NHS, and do people feel more safe and secure in their own community.”

“They are the issues we will be judged on at the next general election, that is our focus.

“That will require hard work, focus and determination from all of us.

“Together, as a team, we will rise to that challenge and deliver for the whole country.”