Concorde chief pilot: Passenger planes won’t break sound barrier until ‘around 2050’

The former chief pilot of the British Airways Concorde fleet has predicted the world will have to wait another quarter-century before passenger planes break the sound barrier again.

Captain Jock Lowe was speaking on the 50th anniversary of the first supersonic passenger flights.

On 21 January 1976, the maiden passenger flight of a British Airways Concorde took off from London Heathrow, destination Bahrain. On the same day, Air France departed from Paris CDG, destination Rio via Dakar in Senegal.

Captain Lowe is full of praise, saying: “From the very first moment it was sheer exhilaration and fun. When you flew the aircraft it was incredibly responsive. If you were a keen pilot, you got all the feedback you could ever want from the power and controllability.

“The analogy I often use is going from a bus to a racing car.”

Concorde’s commercial lifespan was 27 years. “Air France stopped flying in May 2003,” says then former chief pilot. “BA continued until October, and during that time we made a lot of money. Many people finally decided to fly Concorde because they realised it was their last chance.”

A number of entrepreneurs are working on successors to Concorde – notably Boom Supersonic of Denver, which has successfully flown a small test aircraft at supersonic speeds.

But Captain Lowe said: “It would be nice, but I think it’s a long way off. The issues are noise on take‑off and landing, limited range compared with subsonic aircraft, and landing noise. Then there’s politics – once you propose flying supersonically over land or water, environmental objections arise.

“Then there’s cost: development, certification, and meeting modern safety standards are hugely expensive. Finally, there’s the environmental impact in the upper atmosphere. Fourteen Concordes didn’t matter too much, but hundreds would create serious emissions issues where there’s very little atmospheric circulation.

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“My prediction is that if it ever happens, it will be China – so they can fly supersonically from cities like Shanghai, Beijing or Hong Kong to the US West Coast.

“I’d say around 2050.”

Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, concurs: “The world is being served at the moment with new longhaul aircraft technology and you have now longhaul narrow-body aircraft operating on ‘thin’ routes.

“I don't think people are willing to pay the premium to shave two or three hours off these transatlantic or longhaul flights. So I think it's unlikely.”

But Larry Mueller, co-founder and CEO of the Colorado-based luxury lodge enterprise, Cuvée, believes there would be strong demand for a Concorde replacement – or at least a supersonic private jet.

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“I know many people in this world that would love to have a private jet that could fly at those speeds,” he told The Independent’s daily travel podcast.

“The issue is the environmental issues associated with it. Hopefully through technology and other ways that can be dealt with." Mr Mueller is a veteran of Concorde, having spent time running IBM’s European operations from Paris – with regular visits to New York.

“At that point in time in my life, getting from Paris to New York in a short time period was the most important factor. It was a fabulous experience, travelling from Charles de Gaulle to JFK, and I'm 100 per cent supportive of it.

“It was all about speed and it was about the convenience and it was also about them taking care of you as a first-class passenger.”

Captain Lowe believes subsonic air travel will prove sufficient for several decades, saying: “The Americans were right to focus on the Jumbo [Boeing 747] rather than supersonic travel.

“Price matters. Getting people where they want to go matters. The Earth is relatively small, and a few extra hours rarely make a dramatic difference.

“Supersonic flight was a fantastic experience – but we won’t miss it as much as some think.”

Read more: Concorde by numbers