Saturday’s horse racing tips: Best bets and odds for Ascot

Weather permitting, there’s a super Saturday of action to come. Ascot stages its Betfair Chase card and I’ve found five selections on betting sites that look solid options for the meeting.

A race that lacks in numbers but not in depth, with four of the five likely to feel they’ve a chance and another potential improver involved. I was quite taken with the performance of MOUNDOUI’BOY when making his first start for Ben Pauling at Ludlow last month.

He was ridden handily by Ben Jones, taking it up when it suited him and was good value for beating another improver by over four lengths. His trainer immediately said he’d not be ready for Cheltenham but he’d consider Aintree for him if he improves in between, so a win here could book him a trip a spring festival.

I think those comments also imply that he’d come on for that first start for Ben Pauling, so while he’d probably be better treated than he is here if this were a handicap, there could be a fair bit more under the bonnet.

Racing tip 1: Mondoui’boy – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Betway)

Another small field but this Grade 2 could develop into a cracker. It’s interesting that Ben Pauling is prepared to take on the favourite Thomas Mor with THE JUKEBOX KID, who was last seen winning over C&D in handicap company last month.

He’s an improving handicapper and looks assured of picking up some decent prize money here but he’s not yet shown the class of the favourite. The forecast soft ground could, however, he the leveller.

Most of Thomas Mor’s winning form is on less testing ground, whereas the selection won his point on heavy and underlined a penchant for getting his toe in when he scoring over C&D on soft last month, in a decent handicap.

He’s also improving and while he has 5lb to find with Thomas Mor on official BHA ratings, he may be up to doing so on this ground. At twice the price of the favourite on horse racing betting sites at the time of writing, I’m taking that chance.

Racing tip 2: The Jukebox Kid – 1pt win @ 2/1 (bet365)

A big field for this decent pot, although not big enough to give us four places to play for on an each-way basis.

There are plenty in with chances, including the formerly smart Captain Teague, who heads the market on most betting apps. Paul Nicholls has won two of the last ten runnings of this so maybe that’s factored into his price and there’s no doubt he’s well treated on his best form.

He’s obviously not been easy to get to the racecourse in recent years and I’d have liked to have seen him complete on his reappearance if I was going to take 6/1 about him in a race like this.

Plenty of others have a squeak if at their best but if you look at the form of the top ten in the betting, most of them would prefer ground less testing that soft and I think lurking lower down, KATEIRA looks attractively priced at 25/1 (at the time of writing) to pick up some prize money, maybe even win it.

Her best half dozen efforts have all been on good to soft or soft ground and, while I act she has a challenge on shouldering topweight, she stays well and I’d expect Nico de Boinville to hold her up and ask her to do her best work in the final half mile. She’s Dan Skelton’s second string according to the betting but she arrives in good form and I think she’s probably been too readily overlooked.

Racing Tip 3: Kateira – 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

This is a tough one, mainly because I’ve been charting the progress of both Nocte Volatus and JOYEUX MACHIN all season and the former owes us nothing after winning for us at both Warwick and then in the veteran stayers’ final at Sandown last month.

He’s only up 2lb for that and there’s an obvious concern in taking one on when you’ve already backed them with success. He may not need to be any better than that day to complete a hat-trick and he does handle soft ground.

However, I do think the selection is yet another horse that Dan Skelton has managed to get well handicapped again, if his Doncaster run last time is anything to go by. The Great Yorkshire Chase was there for the taking until he tipped up five out. No excuses, jumping is the name of the game and I was disappointed not to have collected there.

That was also on soft ground and he appeared to be acting well on it, so I’m not too concerned regarding that side of things and he gets the vote.

Racing Tip 4: Joyeux Machin (15.00, Ascot) – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Betfred)

This looks open and the first thing to say is that, although the Nicky Henderson-trained Crazierthandaisy stayed on well after fluffing the last at Newbury last time, I’m not sure that justifies market leadership here, when Dan Skelton’s Top Guy finished two placed ahead, fair and square.

He’s a couple of points bigger and I’d not be strongly putting you off if you fancied a crack with the mount of Tristan Durrell. However, a tentative choice to take them on with is the Tim Vaughan-trained KALIUM.

Things have been quieter in recent times for the Welsh trainer but picking up a good Saturday prize like this would be a great fillip. Still only six, Kalium won a bumper under Patrick Mullins on his only start in Ireland, so we know he possesses stamina. He’s won three times for Vaughan at up to 2m3f and there may be a bit more improvement from him for this step up to 3m.

He has a 7lb claimer up to help ease the burden of topweight and if he can perform to a similar level to his only start this season, at Doncaster last November, he has pretty clear each-way claims. He also goes well when fresh and I think he’s worth a small stakes play.

Each Saturday, LiveScore Bet run a money-back offer relating to one of the races being shown on ITV Racing that day. This week, that race is the 15.00 at Newbury.

If you decide to have a wager on that race at Newbury, for which I’ve put up Joyeux Machin, and your selection finishes second, third or fourth, you’ll receive your stake back in free bets.

There’s no need to opt in to the offer, just place a wager on the race and if your selection finishes in the top four but doesn’t win, you’ll receive a free bet refund, up to a maximum of £10.

Only the win part of any each-way bets will be credited back to LiveScore Bet punters.

If you plan to have a bet on the racing, make sure to gamble responsibly.

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Even the most knowledgeable racing punter can lose a bet, so always stick to a budget and never chase your losses.

It’s particularly important not to get carried away by any free bets or casino bonuses you might receive, both of which are available in abundance on gambling sites, but must be approached with caution.

You can stay in control by making use of the responsible gambling tools offered, such as deposit limits, loss limits, self-exclusion and time-outs.

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