Italian Grand Prix prediction & F1 betting tips: Piastri poised to strike

The Italian Grand Prix takes place in Monza this weekend, with Oscar Piastri looking to continue his drive towards the World Championship title after another win in the Netherlands last weekend.

Zandvoort delivered a blow to Lando Norris’ title hopes as a DNF meant that the Briton fell 34 points behind his McLaren teammate in the race for the Drivers’ Championship, with Max Verstappen eventually finishing in second as he continues to perform as the ‘best of the rest’ outside of the McLaren duo.

Piastri saw his F1 odds for a maiden world title cut dramatically after last weekend’s with Norris under mounting pressure. However, though just nine races remain in the 2025 F1 season, there’s plenty of time for things to change drastically.

Norris will hope the turnaround could well begin this week at Monza, though betting sites are confident that Piastri will get yet another win, having priced the Australian at evens to win an eight GP this season.

Unsurprisingly, Norris is second favourite at 13/8, with Verstappen making up the top three at 7/1 to win on Sunday.

Such is the nature of the McLaren performance this season that there is very little value in betting on anyone other than Piastri or Norris to win a given race.

In fact, the real game is simply trying to figure out which of the duo will win during each race week, with Piastri taking the win last week after Norris was forced to retire with an oil leak.

Assuming that two McLaren retirements in two weeks is extremely unlikely, that means that it’ll likely be the two youngsters fighting out for the victory in Monza this weekend too.

And despite his DNF last weekend, Norris was dominant at points over the weekend and was robbed of the chance to take the fight to his Australian teammate in the closing stages of the race.

With a 34-point gap having opened up now, we may see Piastri begin to drive somewhat more cautiously, while Norris could well do the opposite if he feels the championship slipping away with under 10 races left.

The McLaren pairing finished second and third at Monza last year and we’re backing them to take the top two spots this time round.

But while F1 betting sites unsurprisingly have Piastri as favourite for the win, it is handy to remember that Norris took pole here in 2024, and if he can do so again then we think a wager on the Briton to win offers good value given the circumstances.

Italian Grand Prix prediction 1: Oscar Piastri to win - 1/1 Ladbrokes

While nobody has been able to muscle into the two-way title fight between the McLaren duo, Max Verstappen and George Russell have come as close as anyone this season, achieving three wins between them.

The pair are third and fourth respectively in the driver standings and look likely to be in contention for the final podium place on Sunday.

Russell has five podium finishes so far this season alongside a victory in the Canadian GP, and he has been one of the most consistent performers across the grid. He currently sits in fourth in the Drivers’ Championship, just 21 points behind Verstappen.

Previous years have produced decent qualifying performances for Russell and Mercedes at this circuit, and with Verstappen having fallen to seventh with a disappointing performance here last year, the Briton could be an interesting option for a podium finish.

And with Verstappen offered as as low as 1/2 to take the final podium place in Monza, punters may be interested in wagering on Russell, despite his difficulties in first practice on Friday.

Italian Grand Prix prediction 2: George Russell to finish on the podium - 11/8 Bet365

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