2025 BMW Championship prediction, best bets & golf odds: Maryland made to measure for McIlroy

Attentions turn to the Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland on Thursday when the BMW Championship gets underway, and Tommy Fleetwood will be hoping he can put the disappointment of last week behind him for the second event in the FedEx Cup play-offs.

The world No. 15 went into the final round of the St Jude Championship with a one-stroke lead, but after bogeying the penultimate hole, he finished one behind Justin Rose and JJ Spaun, who went on to play the play-off.

Rose was eventually victorious, extending Fleetwood’s winless streak on the PGA Tour to 162 events. Could this week finally be the time he breaks his duck?

Betting sites rated Fleetwood’s chances pretty highly, and the only players with shorter BMW Championship odds are the usual suspects: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.

The BMW Championship has only been held at Caves Valley once, and that was back in 2021, when Patrick Cantlay was victorious after beating Bryson DeChambeau in an epic six-hole playoff.

The pair both carded second rounds of 60, finished four shots clear of the rest of the chasing pack.

You can get 25/1 on golf betting sites on Cantlay winning again, but he’s not had the best 2025, failing to win any of his last 17 tournaments and recording just four top 10 finishes.

The course should suit Scheffler more than the one at TPC Southwind last week, where he still finished on 15 under in a tie for third.

So far this year, the American has finished in the top ten in 14 of the 17 tournaments played and won four of them, including the PGA Championship and The Open.

Unsurprisingly, 1/4 is the best price available on betting apps for him to finish in the top 10, but William Hill are offering 6/4 on him finishing as the top-ranked American.

BMW Championship prediction 1: Scottie Scheffler to finish as top American - 6/4 William Hill

McIlroy opted to miss last week’s St Jude Championship, and he will hope that the break will give him the edge over the rest of the field in Maryland.

Power and accuracy off the tee could be key at Caves Valley which historically favours big-hitters who can find distance on the fairway and that is a key aspect to McIlroy’s game.

The Northern Irishman has also been gaining shots on the green this season with his putting helping him hole clutch pars and record low scores at major tournaments.

McIlroy also finished fourth here back in 2021 propelled up the leaderboard by an opening-round score of 64, though shooting 70 on the Friday effectively ended his chances at a win.

He’s 14/1 to make another hot start and lead after the first round, but our preference is on him celebrating his fourth win of the year.

BMW Championship prediction 2: McIlroy to win - 8/1 BetVictor

He might have been disappointed last week, but Fleetwood has had a consistent year so far, missing the cut just once in his 17 tournaments played.

He has also finished in the top 10 six times and was runner-up at the Travelers Championship in New England back in June.

BMW Championship prediction 3: Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top 10 - 6/4 Bet365

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