Napoli vs Chelsea betting tips & Champions League prediction: Blues may fail Italian test

Chelsea occupy the eighth and final last-16 spot heading into the final round of league matches in the Champions League, but to keep it they’ll need to overcome a familiar face now in charge of Napoli (8pm, TNT Sports 4 & Discovery+).

The Blues have 13 points from their seven games to date and sit in the top eight of the table, alongside compatriots Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham.

However, the two-time European champions have yet to pick up a win on their travels in Europe this season and anything other than a victory tonight would leave them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by the chasing pack, which features Barcelona, Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.

They were beaten at Bayern Munich and Atalanta and drew away at Qarabag when Alejandro Garnacho scored midway through the second half to secure a point and a 2-2 draw in Azerbaijan.

Here they face former boss Antonio Conte, who guided Napoli to the Serie A title last season but has seen them struggle to replicate that kind of form in Europe this term. They enter matchday eight in 25th place, just outside the knockout phase qualification spots.

Conte’s men are underdogs for Wednesday’s game, according to betting sites, but may prove the value option for punters if Chelsea can’t overcome their recent travel sickness.

Chelsea’s only defeat under new head coach Liam Rosenior came against Arsenal in the first leg of the League Cup semi-finals, while they have beaten Charlton in the FA Cup, Brentford, Pafos and Crystal Palace last time out.

Wednesday’s match will be just the second meeting between the two sides, with the first coming back in the 2011/12 Champions League round of 16.

Chelsea overturned a 3-1 first-leg defeat in Naples with a 4-1 extra-time victory at Stamford Bridge and went on to win the competition for the first time.

They wouldn’t mind a similar outcome this season, but there is no second leg at home this time around, and the Italian side have won eight of their previous 11 matches at home against English teams, drawing one and losing the other two.

They have beaten Sporting and Qarabag at home this season while being held by Eintracht Frankfurt, and go into the game having lost just one of their last 20 Champions League matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

During that time, they have won 12 and drawn seven, while Chelsea have won just two of their 13 away games against Italian opposition, losing six of their last seven. And yet, Londoners are no bigger than 6/5 on betting apps to win this game.

The Blues have scored in their last 13 matches and only failed to find the net twice in 35 games. They were in goalless draws with Bournemouth in December and Crystal Palace on the opening day of the season, and their attack looked more fluid in last Sunday’s 3-1 win over Crystal Palace.

Defensively, Chelsea still look vulnerable and may be exposed by a Napoli team that must win on Wednesday to have a chance of making the play-off round.

Napoli vs Chelsea prediction 1: Napoli to win & BTTS - 9/2 William Hill

Moises Caicedo was Chelsea’s match-winner in their last European outing when netting the winner in a 1-0 victory over Pafos at home.

Caicedo scored the only goal of the game to take his tally to five, but that’s not a patch on the number of times he’s been booked.

He already has 12 yellow cards and two reds this season, and the fact that football betting sites are offering 5/2 on him being booked on Wednesday might be worth a look.

Napoli vs Chelsea prediction 2: Caicedo to get booked - 5/2 Bet365

Napoli: The home side will be without Kevin De Bruyne (thigh), Frank Anguissa (thigh), Billy Gilmour (groin), Matteo Politano (muscle), David Neres (ankle) and Amir Rrahmani (muscle), who are all long-term absentees. While former Blues striker Romelu Lukaku is unlikely to be risked from the start after only making his first appearance since August, at the weekend.

Chelsea: Cole Palmer is a doubt for Chelsea after missing the weekend’s win over Palace with a thigh problem, and Reece James could be rested after playing 81 minutes at the weekend as the club continues to manage his game time. Romeo Lavia (muscle), Filip Jorgensen (hamstring), Levi Colwill (knee), Tosin Adarabioyo (hamstring) and Dario Essugo (thigh) are definitely out.

Napoli: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Jesus, Buongiorno; Spinazzola, Lobotka, McTominay, Gutierrez; Vergara, Elmas; Hojlund

Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Badiashile, Cucurella; James, Caicedo; Pedro Neto, Fernandez, Estevao; Joao Pedro

It’s the final round of league phase matches with all 16 games kicking off at 8pm on Wednesday, and to mark the occasion, NetBet are offering a £5 free bet to punters.

Just head to NetBet’s Champions League match markets and put together a bet builder for any game, including Napoli vs Chelsea. The bet builder must contain three or more selections and have minimum odds of 3/1.

Punters who wager £10 or more on a qualifying bet builder will receive a £5 free bet from NetBet

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