Chelsea vs Benfica prediction, best bets, odds & line-ups: Blues to secure vital home win

Jose Mourinho makes his latest return to Stamford Bridge, this time as head coach of Benfica, seeking to inflict a second successive Champions League loss on his old club (8pm, TNT Sports 1).

Chelsea welcome their former manager as their current boss looks to recover from a string of negative results, the opening loss to Bayern Munich added to by consecutive league losses to Manchester United and Brighton.

While betting sites don’t consider the Blues among the favourites to win the competition in the early Champions League odds, Maresca and the club hierarchy will be hoping for a deep run into the competition, with the Italian likely facing questions over his job if he is unable to deliver on the bigger stage.

The Club World Cup winners face a tricky run through the league phase of the competition with games against Barcelona, Napoli and Atalanta still to come. That makes winning home matches against poor travellers like Benfica vital.

Football betting sites are pricing the hosts as odds-on favourites to earn a victory, with Mourinho a big underdog to upset his old employers.

Chelsea’s summer promised plenty but the Blues have made a mixed start to the new season, losing to Bayern in their opening Champions League match before those consecutive league losses in the last fortnight.

And while there is some pressure on Maresca from some sections of the fanbase, the Italian can ease a lot of that with a run in Europe.

Thankfully for him, his next opponent is a Benfica side that has shown a mixed level of quality so far this term, which explains why the hosts are such heavy favourites at the Bridge.

The Portuguese side have already played 13 games so far this season, winning nine, drawing three and losing one. However, two of those draws came to lowly Rio Ave and Santa Clara in the league, while the loss was a damaging 3-2 home defeat at the hands of Champions League minnows Qarabag on matchday one.

Benfica had been 2-0 up in that match before conceding three times without reply, and it demonstrates a visible weakness in the visitors’ backline. While Mourinho has since taken over at the helm, the fact remains that a side with Chelsea’s attacking quality will likely exploit any defensive weaknesses – especially at home - with the Blues having scored 14 times in their opening eight games of 2025/26.

Nevertheless, while the Blues should earn a fairly straightforward home win here, they do have a propensity for conceding soft goals – even when they win comfortably – having let in 12 goals so far this term.

Letting in goals against the likes of Brentford, West Ham and Lincoln proves that the backline is capable of defensive lapses even when winning comfortably, so we think a wager on Chelsea to win but both teams to score could offer value in this one.

Chelsea vs Benfica prediction 1: Chelsea to win & both teams to score -2/1 Ladbrokes

Summer signing Joao Pedro got off to the perfect start at Chelsea as has goals helped the Blues won the inaugural Club World Cup, though the former Brighton man has been unable to produce the same form at the start of 2025/26 as the club have stuttered in recent weeks.

Nevertheless, the Brazilian has two goals and three assists across his opening six Premier League games, and while he has not scored in his last three against Bayern, United and Brighton, the red cards picked up by Chelsea in the latter two have meant that he has essentially led the line with no support recently.

The Blues should be much more settled at home to Benfica this week, and that should benefit their new striker as he looks to open his account in Europe.

Even just keeping to 11 men should provide the Brazilian more opportunities to score or assist, with the striker having taken nine shots over the last four ‘normal’ games versus zero shots over the two games in which Chelsea had a player sent off.

Pedro accumulated an xG of 1.38 over August and while September’s number is far lower, we believe the extenuating circumstances are worth noting, with the 24-year-old well-placed to break his scoring duck this week.

And to that end, we think a wager on Pedro to score or assist on Tuesday could offer good value.

Chelsea vs Benfica prediction 2: Joao Pedro to score or assist- 4/5 Betway

Chelsea: Cole Palmer and Tosin Adarabioyo are Chelsea’s newest absentees, with the duo forced to miss the match against Brighton. Both will likely be out until the international break, with Liam Delap not returning until even later, likely in late November.

Wesley Fofana suffered a concussion in the match against Lincoln, so it’s unlikely he’ll be able to play, while Trevoh Chalobah is available despite a red card in the league last week.

Benfica: Portuguese winger Bruma remains out until October, with Manu Silva and Alexander Bah also out as they continue recoveries from respective ACL injuries.

Chelsea XI: Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Hato, Cucurella; Lavia, Caicedo, Fernandez; Estevao, Pedro, Neto.

Benfica XI: Trubin; Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Rios, Aursnes; Lukebakio, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.

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