New poll spells big trouble for Trump after charges in Georgia case

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The indictments against Donald Trump may help him get the Republican presidential nomination, but they’re harming his prospects of winning the general election against President Joe Biden.

That’s among the results of a new poll from Politico Magazine and Ipsos which has revealed that the American people are taking the cases against Mr Trump seriously, with the survey revealing the electorate’s particular focus on the 2020 election subversion proscution brought by the Department of Justice.

The poll also shows that most Americans remain sceptical of Mr Trump’s arguments that the cases against him have no merit and that they’re part of a politically motivated witch hunt and a weaponization of the justice system.

Compared to a previous Ipsos survey from June, the numbers are moving in a negative direction for Mr Trump, specifically regarding the timeline of a trial and whether Mr Trump should be imprisoned if he’s convicted.

The more recent poll was conducted between 18 and 21 August, about two and a half weeks after the second federal indictment against Mr Trump was handed down and some days following the former president being charged on 13 counts in Fulton County, Georgia.

With 1,032 respondents, the poll had a margin of error of 3.2 per cent.

The poll also found that most Americans think Mr Trump should stand trial before the 2024 election. Federal prosecutors have suggested a trial date of 2 January 2024 for the DoJ’s 2020 election case while Mr Trump’s lawyers have argued that the trial should wait until April 2026, the latter giving Mr Trump ample time to attempt to get re-elected, possibly return to the West Wing and shut down the case against him.

The American people as a whole agree with the timeline of the Department of Justice — 59 per cent said they think the trial should occur before the GOP primaries and 61 per cent said they think it should take place before the general election.

There’s a large partisan split between the parties with 89 per cent of Democrats saying the trial should take place before the general election, but only 33 per cent of Republicans agreeing. And among the most important group to win over in an election — independents — 63 per cent say the trial should happen before the election.

After Mr Trump’s indictment in Florida regarding his alleged mishandling of classified documents, only 48 per cent of independents said the trial in that case should happen before the election.

Mr Trump has similar problems when it comes to the number of Americans who believe he’s guilty in the federal election subversion case — 51 per cent believe he is. That includes 88 per cent of Democrats, 14 per cent of Republicans and 53 per cent of independents.

Forty-four per cent of Americans said that a conviction of Mr Trump in the federal election subversion case wouldn’t affect their willingness to support Mr Trump, while 32 per cent said the outcome of the trial would affect how they voted, meaning that Mr Trump may lose support in a highly polarized race.

Meanwhile, 13 per cent — a group made up mostly of GOP voters — said a conviction would make them more likely to vote for Mr Trump.

Another potential issue for the former president is that there are still many Americans who know little about the allegations against him, meaning that his polling figures may worsen as voters tune into the news ahead of the election. Between a quarter and a third of respondents in the poll said they don’t understand the charges against Mr Trump well.

If Mr Trump is convicted in the federal election subversion case, 50 per cent of Americans say he should go to prison, including 87 per cent of Democrats, 11 per cent of Republicans and 51 per cent of independents.

When asked if the federal election subversion case was based on a “fair evaluation of the evidence”, 59 per cent of Americans agreed. Twenty-three per cent of Republicans said the indictment was fair, while the figure for Democrats was 89 per cent and 64 per cent for independents.

While Mr Trump has been arguing that the Biden administration has been weaponizing the justice system, more Americans think Mr Trump is guilty of this. Fifty-three per cent of Americans said that the Trump administration used the Department of Justice to go after political enemies without evidence, compared to 45 per cent who said the same about the Biden White House.

But 44 per cent of Americans — 20 per cent of Democrats and 40 per cent of independents — said the indictment of Mr Trump was an attempt to get an advantage for Mr Biden.

The poll also measured the approval ratings of Mr Trump and Mr Biden in connection to the cases against the former president. Mr Trump received a net favourability rating of -31 per cent while Mr Biden received -9 per cent.