Starmer warned UK faces ‘1936 moment’ as ex-defence chiefs urge spending boost

Britain’s armed forces have been “hollowed out by years of chronic underfunding”, according to a stark warning from former defence leaders.

An open letter to the prime minister, signed by three ex-defence secretaries, retired senior military chiefs, and former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove, says that the UK faces a “1936 moment”, with global conflict likely amid rising tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The letter, published in The Telegraph, calls for defence spending to reach 5 per cent of GDP.

This contrasts with Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to increase it to 2.5 per cent next year and 3 per cent after the next election.

“Our actions fall dangerously short of matching this rhetoric and of meeting our treaty obligations,” the letter reads.

“We are deluding ourselves if we believe Russia and our other adversaries are unaware of this.”

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The government has yet to publish its delayed Defence Investment Plan (Dip), setting out how it will meet its commitments.

The prime minister’s spokesperson insisted on Monday that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) was working “flat-out” to deliver the plan “as soon as possible”.

The open letter urged Sir Keir to “commit now to a bold, credible and measurable path to spending 5 per cent of GDP on core defence, providing the certainty our Armed Forces, industry, and our long-standing allies need to deter aggression and secure Britain’s future.”

“You must recognise that we are facing our 1936 moment: global conflict is highly likely if we don’t invest in deterrence now.”

In January, Downing Street refused to deny reports that the MoD faces a shortfall of up to £28bn amid suggestions that a budget black hole had prompted Sir Keir Starmer to order an overhaul of the investment plan.

“Recent reports highlight that your Government appears in denial over a stark reality: The Ministry of Defence faces a £28 billion shortfall over the coming years simply to make Britain’s Armed Forces ‘war-ready,’” the letter read.

“This gap—equivalent to nearly half the MoD’s annual budget—threatens to leave our forces under-equipped and overstretched at a time when readiness, already a weakness, is paramount.”

Signatories to the letter include former defence secretaries Sir Ben Wallace, Sir Grant Shapps and Sir Michael Fallon, as well as General Richard Dannatt, the former chief of the general staff, and Admiral Lord West, the former First Sea Lord.

The letter also accused the government of heaping “unfunded new costs” onto the MoD, citing the Chagos Islands deal, pay rises and potential compensation for an Afghan data leak.

In June 2025, Sir Keir pledged to meet Nato’s target to spend 5 per cent of GDP on national security by 2035.

It included spending 3.5 per cent on “core defence” and another 1.5 per cent on “resilience and security”.

On Monday, the BBC reported the prime minister is considering bringing forward the 3 per cent target to 2029.

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Asked about the reports at an event in London earlier in the week, Sir Keir would not confirm that he was considering bringing forward the target, but said Europe needed to “step up when it comes to defence and security”.

He said: “We have a threat of Russian aggression. In a few days’ time it’s the four-year anniversary of the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

“We want a just and lasting peace, but that will not extinguish the Russian threat, and we need to be alert to that, because that’s going to affect every single person in this room, every single person in this country, so we need to step up.

“That means on defence spending, we need to go faster.”

A government spokesperson said the prime minister’s Nato commitment was “a generational increase in defence and security spending, and we are well on track to meet that target”.

They said: “As demands for defence increase, we are delivering the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, with an additional £5bn this financial year alone and £270bn across this Parliament – ensuring no return to the hollowed out armed forces of the past.

“We make no apologies for delivering the largest pay rise in decades to our hard-working personnel and a £9bn housing strategy to renew tens of thousands of military homes after years of neglect.”