New immigration and asylum numbers point in different directions

Net immigration fell to 204,000 in the year to June, according to the latest estimate from the Office for National Statistics. This is the level that was the norm for several years before the EU referendum. It was considered too high by a majority of the population at the time – a view that contributed to the 52 per cent Leave vote in 2016.

It now looks a remarkably low figure, compared with the peak of the “Boriswave”, when net immigration reached 944,000 in the year to March 2023, under Boris Johnson’s liberal post-Brexit rules.

Meanwhile, separate figures published by the Home Office show that there were 36,000 asylum seekers in hotels in September, a rise of 2 per cent over the previous year.

The same figures for the year to September also show a large increase in the number of people arriving in the country by irregular routes, such as small boats or lorries: 51,000 people arrived by irregular routes, 46,000 of whom arrived by dinghy – up 53 per cent on the previous year.

The reduction in legal immigration has been predicted since the last Conservative government realised the scale of what was happening and changed the law to restrict visas. The largest part of the “Boriswave” was people on health and care visas and their families – and most of the restrictions on this group were applied by James Cleverly as home secretary before the change of government.

It is worth noting, though, that the fall in net immigration is not driven by British or EU nationals leaving the country. Emigration has risen, according to the ONS, but this is accounted for solely by non-British, non-EU nationals.

Public perceptions have not yet caught up. According to research by British Future, an immigration think tank, most of the general public thinks that immigration is still rising.

Sunder Katwala, the director, said: “This is another significant drop in net migration, but research shows this has not cut through to the public, who still think immigration is going up.”

He added: “Falling immigration has been the best-kept secret in British politics for too long. It is time that our immigration debate caught up with reality.”

Katwala urges the government to make the case for a moderate level of immigration, to go back to the pre-Brexit debate about what level gives the optimum balance between the “pressures and gains”.

Perceptions of immigration are probably influenced by the most visible form, which is the cross-Channel traffic of small boats. Given that almost all of these arrivals claim asylum, the asylum figures may be the most important for the government’s attempt to assure public opinion that it is in control.

Those Home Office statistics reveal that 110,000 people claimed refugee status in the year to September – higher than the previous peak of 103,000 under the last Labour government in 2002.

Tony Blair and Jack Straw, his home secretary, brought the numbers down quite quickly in the early 2000s, but Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood face a much tougher struggle, trying to succeed where Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman and James Cleverly failed.