In Iran, Trump has finally stumbled on a proper target for his ugly tariff war

Donald Trump can get some things right.

I say that with some hesitancy, given the fact that, in my opinion, his behaviour and policies represent a working definition of modern fascism, but the imposition of penal secondary tariffs of 25 per cent for countries that do business with Iran is one such.

At this critical juncture in Iran’s counter-revolution, any peaceful assistance that can be supplied to the Iranian people must, on balance, be the right thing to do. The move will add indirect pressure onto the regime in Iran via the effects on exports, principally oil, which fund the country’s leadership, security infrastructure and, of course, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the only people to do well out of theocratic rule.

At a time when the Iranian economy and its currency is in dire trouble anyway – a major cause of the unrest – the loss of major export markets such as China, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, India, Turkey and Pakistan, at least prospectively, will perhaps make the ayatollahs think again about their brutal murder of protesters.

Other trading partners, such as the EU (ie Germany), should have the Iranian people as well as Western geopolitical interests uppermost in their minds as they consider selling goods into Iran.

Would the Trump tariff war in Iran work? Obviously, there are reasons to doubt that it will be as effective as hoped. Countries cheat, for a start. Iranian consumers and businesses with no link to the regime will suffer. China and India don’t like to be pushed around by America, and may resist the attempt by the White House to coerce them.

But still, it is the best “weapon” that America has at its disposal. It is certainly preferable to a round of bombing raids, because even if these were confined to the nuclear sites and military bases, there would be loss of life and a counter-reaction against American aggression – a rallying to the flag. That would be even more true of any “covert” actions, apparently presented to Trump by the chiefs of staff as options for action.

Trump is of an age when he can well remember what happened to President Jimmy Carter when a daring raid to release Americans held hostage in the US embassy in Tehran failed so humiliatingly back in 1980. That only served to bolster that original Islamic revolution and put Carter firmly on the road to defeat in the subsequent presidential election.

Any attempt to kidnap Ayatollah Khamenei, Maduro-style, would have a similar effect, as well as the problem of what to do with the Supreme Leader.

We need to hold to the vision of what a “new Iran” could bring to its people, the region and the world. Provided that what we still term “the West” uses its influence to help tip the balance of power in the country and promotes a more open and liberal regime, then the benefits will spread far and wide.

The Iranian people, released from incompetent religious tyranny and international sanctions, would rapidly prosper without the need to develop a nuclear deterrent.

Iran would once again be a leading power in the region and a source of stability. It would support the cause of the Palestinian people, as do other powers, but without sponsoring terrorism in Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen (and end its on-and-off proxy war with Saudi Arabia fought there). Iran would cease to sustain Russia’s war in Ukraine through funding and drone technology.

The new Iran would, for the first time since the fall of the last shah – who we needn’t romanticise – be at peace with its neighbours, especially Syria and Iraq. Iranians would no longer have to flee for their lives and their freedoms. This is the prize that is within sight for Iranians and the world. If Trump plays his part in that liberation, we shouldn’t resent it.