Why 2026 is the year Trump and Maga could be in trouble

The year ahead for the United States of America is going to be a celebration. A big one. The shining city on the hill, the great “experiment in self-determination”, as founding father Alexander Hamilton put it, is going to be 250 years old this year. And the royals will be flying across the Atlantic to join in the party. From George III to Charles III. Happy Birthday America.

And in true Trump style there will be military parades, flypasts, marching bands, and the biggest party the White House has ever hosted. All birthdays with a nought on the end tend to bring on a bout of introspection and self-reflection. This will be no different, and there is a lot to reflect on.

Look, Donald Trump is like no other president in America’s history. The international order that was shaped by the US after World War 2 is being recast by him.

Trump has asserted control over nearly all levers of government in a way the founding fathers actively cautioned against. Civil society is under attack. Corporate America seems terrified. The media is cowed. Political opponents are being prosecuted. Pals are being pardoned. And that brings some pretty profound questions about the state of US democracy itself.

We’ll hear a lot about American Exceptionalism over the coming year ahead, but it is exceptionalism for all the wrong reasons. These are the big questions over the future of America, and its position as leader of the “free world”. But there are smaller questions that are gnawing away at Trump’s authority, and how 2026 pans out is going to be critical.

A year into the Trump second term, his total dominance and vice-like grip of the political and social landscape is facing challenges.

Let’s go back to fundamentals, and what Donald Trump promised the American people. He was going to drain the swamp, remember? He was the man who was going to take on the self-serving elites and stand up for blue collar America.

But what’s happened? He’s surrounded himself with the crypto, tech and AI billionaires and seems to be doing everything to keep them happy, while more and more ordinary Americans fear for their futures.

And what about the Epstein files? After taking power last January he suddenly seemed to develop cold feet about releasing all the documents that the Maga elite had promised would be made public. His falling out with Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the high apostles of America First, can easily be played for laughs, but her turning on him is more serious than that.

She refused to fall into line over the Epstein files, and her intransigence was one of the decisive factors that forced Donald Trump to eat a portion of his least favourite dish – humble pie. MTG hasn’t gone quietly. According to her, Trump screamed at her on the phone that if the files were released friends of his were going to get hurt. Maybe even Trump himself (although, of course, he denies any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein).

This is hardly the argument of someone “draining the swamp”. In fact, it makes it look like he is the swampiest of swamp creatures. Trump has found himself on completely the wrong side of public opinion on this.

But the biggest issue of all is the economy. Trump promised that America would boom like never before. On this, evidence is mixed.

The dire predictions from some that tariffs would send the US economy into another depression have not been realised. And the latest GDP figures from the US showing an annualised growth rate of 4.3 per cent must have Rachel Reeves green with envy. Then there is the stock market which, despite talk of an AI bubble that will inevitably burst, seems to be shrugging off those fears.

Yet going into 2026, the public sentiment indicators are all pointing in the wrong direction. Americans are worried about the cost of living. They are rightly terrified about what it will mean for their health insurance premiums now that Covid era subsidies have been phased out. Some are seeing the cost of their insurance policies treble overnight.

Again, there are those in the Maga orbit who are telling Trump he is getting his priorities all wrong.

The official word of last year according to the Oxford English Dictionary may well have been ‘rage bait’ – and the president is particularly good at baiting, but the word that sends him into a rage is ‘affordability’. He wants to wish the word away ; he wants to blame the Democrats for any problems that households are facing. He has tried to call it a hoax. But Affordability is set to become the dominant issue in 2026.

And the beleaguered, bedraggled Democrats now see an argument with which they can batter their political opponents. Why is this crucial? In November the midterm elections take place, when all of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be up for re-election. If Trump loses control of Congress, then life is going to get a lot more difficult for him. Governing will be no fun. He will be assailed on all sides, while ambitious Republicans will be thinking it could be me for 2028.

If 2026 goes badly, this could be the moment when Trump and Trumpism goes into decline. But he is the greatest political escapologist the world has ever seen, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. One prediction I do make: he’ll keep us watching – and guessing what the hell will happen next.