Ranking Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open opponents — from Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, to herself

In a stark contrast to the men’s side, the list of contenders for this year’s Australian Open women’s singles title runs deep. But there is still one clear favourite.

Since the start of 2023, Aryna Sabalenka has won 38 of the 40 matches she has played in Australia, winning the Australian Open twice. Over that same period, she has compiled a record of 40-2 at both the Australian Open and US Open. The 27-year-old Belarusian is bidding for a seventh hard-court grand slam final in a row.

But Sabalenka’s dominance was challenged by a compelling year where there were three other grand slam champions, in Madison Keys, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, while Amanda Anisimova reached two major finals and another force, in the former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, won the season-ending WTA Finals with a statement dismantling of Sabalenka in the title match.

In 2025, there was often such a fine balance in the women’s draw between unpredictability through the first few rounds and star power always rising towards the end to set up blockbuster finals. It led to Sabalenka often coming unstuck on the biggest stages and, despite her record, there are once again several major threats to her Australian Open bid this year.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina has the best serve in women’s tennis and the destructive game that led to a Wimbledon title and Australian Open final, against Sabalenka in 2023, is coming back into form following a frustrating period of illness and attention on off-court matters involving her coach, Stefano Vukov. Denied Sabalenka the year-end WTA Finals title, and the biggest single payday in women’s tennis history, with a sensational performance in Riyadh.

Iga Swiatek

There is a lot more to come from the Sabalenka-Swiatek rivalry. Last season’s French Open semi-final was just their second meeting at a grand slam, and they have yet to meet in a grand slam final. Swiatek’s form was shaky at the season-opening United Cup, losing to Coco Gauff and Belinda Bencic, but the World No 2 is Sabalenka’s opposite in so many ways. Take their record in finals. Swiatek has a 6-0 record in grand slam finals (25-5 overall), and is just an Australian Open away from the career grand slam. If she were to face Sabalenka (4-3 in grand slam finals, 22-19 overall) it would be a blockbuster way to start the season.

Coco Gauff

Gauff can be like Sabalenka’s Kryptonite with her ability to recover lost causes and make her opponent hit the extra ball. It has so far led to catastrophic collapses from Sabalenka in two grand slam finals, in the 2023 US Open and last year’s Roland Garros. Unlike Sabalenka, Gauff’s form in the early rounds can often be unpredictable. The earliest they could meet is the semi-finals.

open image in gallery

Mirra Andreeva

The 18-year-old defeated Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final to win the second of her two WTA 1000 titles last season. Andreeva faded over the final weeks of the season, but can show why she is a rising force at the Australian Open. Famously stunned Sabalenka, at the age of 17, to reach the French Open semi-finals in 2024, before Sabalenka got revenge with two one-sided wins in Brisbane and Melbourne last year, which would seem to make the No 1 the clear favourite in these conditions. Then came Indian Wells, and another major upset. Andreeva could also be a semi-final opponent.

Amanda Anisimova

Will have revenge on her mind after September’s US Open final defeat and is one of two players in the top-15 to own a winning record against Sabalenka, along with Swiatek. Has the pure power from the baseline to wrestle a match away from Sabalenka, as she proved in their Wimbledon semi-final and, at times, in their US Open final. But Sabalenka has won their last two meetings.

Naomi Osaka

Osaka and Sabalenka have only played each other once and that was way back in 2018. A lot has happened since but Osaka managed to find her best level since returning to the sport as she reached the US Open semi-finals last season, where she came within a few games of joining Sabalenka in the final. At this point, they have remarkably similar CVs, with two Australian Opens, two US Opens, and the No 1 ranking. If Osaka gets through to the latter stages, we would know she’s a danger, and a meeting in Melbourne would be a treat.

open image in gallery

Belinda Bencic

Another relative unknown for Sabalenka, given her time away from the sport, but one who will be arriving at the Australian Open in red-hot form. Sabalenka and Bencic have not played since the Swiss returned to the tour after giving birth to her first child in April 2024. After winning all five of her matches at the United Cup, the former Olympic champion has returned to the top-10 for the first time since March 2023.

Jessica Pegula

The former US Open runner-up came agonisingly close to ending Sabalenka’s winning run in New York and avenging her defeat in the 2024 final in last year’s semis. But the ever-consistent and reliable Pegula did earn some revenge in Wuhan, snapping Sabalenka’s 20-match win streak at the tournament in a third-set tie-break. She may feel she is getting closer.

Madison Keys

Last year’s Australian Open champion had Sabalenka’s number in the final as her powerful game clicked and completed one of the most remarkable grand slam title runs in recent memory. But the second half of the season was difficult for Keys. She will be seeded ninth and lost 6-3 6-3 to Sabalenka in Brisbane last week.

Aryna Sabalenka

open image in gallery

It may seem unfair to say that one of Sabalenka’s biggest opponents is often herself, but it has also been a defining aspect of all of her recent grand slam final appearances. After those meltdowns against Keys and Gauff, Sabalenka swore that she would be different when facing Anisimova in the US Open final. “I decided for myself that I'm going to control my emotions. I'm not going to let them take control over me,” Sabalenka said. She succeeded. But those emotions again spilled over after she was beaten by Rybakina in the WTA Finals, once again highlighting Sabalenka’s constant battle to keep them under the surface.

Her record in all finals since the start of last year’s season is 5-5. It would be a major shock if Sabalenka did not make it to another Australian Open final. But once there, it still feels like it could be anyone’s to win.