England vs New Zealand prediction: Landmark win for Borthwick’s men

England take on New Zealand on Saturday, with betting sites making the hosts marginal favourites to secure their first win against the All Blacks since 2019 (3:10pm, TNT Sports 1 and Discovery+) .

England’s last victory over New Zealand was a 19-7 victory in the 2019 World Cup semi-finals. Since then, the two sides have played four times, with New Zealand winning three and the other, in November 2022, ending 25-25.

That was only the second draw between the two powerhouses in 120 years and you can get 25/1 on another draw at Twickenham, while rugby betting sites don’t go bigger than 19/20 on a famous England win.

Steve Borthwick’s side are riding high after nine straight wins, including autumn successes against Australia and Fiji, while New Zealand have beaten Ireland and Scotland since arriving in the northern hemisphere.

Despite England winning just one of their last 11 meetings with the All Blacks, their average losing margin in the nine defeats is less than six points, so no one will be taking anything for granted.

The visitors were also less than impressive last weekend, when they let a 17-0 lead slip against Scotland, allowing them to level things up, before a late converted try secured them a 25-17 win at Murrayfield.

The last meeting between the two sides, just over 12 months ago, saw the visitors win by the narrowest of margins, with a 24-22 triumph, but things could have been very different if George Ford had successfully made one of his two late attempts off the tee.

This year marks the 100th anniversary since the first meeting at Twickenham between these two, taking place on 3 January 1925. The All Blacks won that first meeting 17-11 despite being reduced to 14 men after just eight minutes, when Cyril Brownlie was the first player ever to be sent off in a Test match.

Based on recent form and England being on home turf, it’s maybe not a huge surprise that Borthwick’s men are favourites. However, matches between these two tend to be close with six of the last seven decided by seven points or less, and England’s 10th straight win may come about by very fine margins.

England vs New Zealand prediction: England to win by 1-7 points - 13/5 William Hill

England: Steward; Roebuck, Lawrence, Dingwall, Feyi-Waboso; Ford, Mitchell; Baxter, George, Heyes, Itoje, Coles, Pepper, Underhill, Earl

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Stuart, Cunningham-South, T Curry, Pollock, Spencer, M Smith

New Zealand: Jordan; Carter, Proctor, Tupaea, Fainga'anuku; B Barrett, Roigard, De Groot, Taylor (vc), Newell, S Barrett (c), Holland, Parker, Savea (vc), Lakai

Replacements: Taukei'aho, Williams, Tosi, Lord, Sititi, Ratima, Lienert-Brown, McKenzie

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