Newcastle vs Man City prediction and Carabao Cup betting tips

Holders Newcastle United host Manchester City in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-finals tonight, looking to continue their impressive home form (kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports).

The Magpies have lost just three times at home this season to Liverpool, Barcelona and Arsenal, and that last defeat, 2-1 to the league leaders, came way back in September.

Since then, they have won 10 and drawn three at St James Park, and they know they will need to get a good result tonight to take into the second leg in three weeks if they are to reach the final at Wembley again.

At this stage of last season’s competition, they faced Arsenal, beating them 2-0 both home and away to set up a final against Liverpool, which they won 2-1 at Wembley.

Despite being the holders, Eddie Howe’s side are the least likely side with football betting sites to lift the trophy again in the latest Carabao Cup odds, while City are the favourites.

Newcastle needed a penalty shootout to overcome fellow Premier League side Bournemouth in Saturday’s FA Cup tie following a 3-3 draw which saw Harvey Barnes score twice and Anthony Gordon hold his nerve to score from the penalty spot, in added time, to send the game to extra time.

City had a far easier afternoon as they put 10 past League One side Exeter City at the Etihad and Erling Haaland wasn’t even on the scoresheet.

Seven different City players were on target with two coming from own goals and Rico Lewis scoring twice. There was also a goal on his debut for new forward Antoine Semenyo, who joined from Bournemouth for £65m last week.

Following a rule change, he will be eligible to feature tonight despite playing 45 minutes in Bournemouth’s second-round defeat by Brentford back in August.

Saturday’s win ended a disappointing run of three straight draws over the Christmas period, which has left City six points behind Arsenal in the league and level on points with Aston Villa, so this competition could take on added importance as City look to win more silverware.

They failed to win any trophies last season, and a Carabao Cup triumph would be their first since lifting the Premier League back in 2024 and the first time they have won the League Cup since beating Tottenham 1-0 in the 2021 final.

The two sides have already met at St James Park this season in the league, and it was the home side who came out on top. Barnes also scored twice that day, either side of a strike by Ruben Dias to earn his side all three points.

Last season’s meeting in the northeast ended all square with a penalty from Gordon cancelling out Josko Gvardiol’s first-half opener.

Despite the recent results and Newcastle’s outstanding home form betting sites have the visitors as the favourites for the win tonight.

In the league, 11 points and four places might separate the two sides, but Newcastle have won their last four matches in all competitions and are unbeaten in 13 at home, so 37/20 for a home win seems generous.

Both teams have scored in five of Newcastle’s last seven matches, and they have kept just 10 clean sheets in their 31 games in all competitions.

City’s defensive record isn’t much better with just 13 clean sheets, and both teams have scored in four of their five, including Exeter at the weekend.

Newcastle vs Man City prediction 1: BTTS and Newcastle to win - 37/20 William Hill

Harvey Barnes is in excellent form this season and has four goals in his last two appearances with braces against Leeds and Bournemouth.

He already has 11 goals for the season and has bagged two or more four times, including against City and betting apps are offering 24/1 on that happening again.

This is already his best return since joining Newcastle, but he still has two to go to match the number he scored for Leicester to earn the move to St James’ Park but with almost half of the season still to play, that looks inevitable.

Newcastle vs Man City prediction 2: Harvey Barnes to score - 29/10 BetMGM

Newcastle: The home side are still without long-term injured Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles and William Osula, while Anthony Elanga is also still a doubt after missing the last five matches.

Man City: John Stones, Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Dias, Savinho and Oscar Bobb are all still out injured but Phil Foden is likely to return to the squad after being rested at the weekend.

Betfred are running a bet £10 get £5 free bet offer for existing customers for the Carabao Cup semi-final clash between Newcastle and Manchester City tonight.

To qualify, customers need only to opt-in on the betting offer via the promotions page before placing a £10 pre-match bet on any Newcastle vs Man City market with odds of 1/2 or greater.

Once your bet has been confirmed, you’ll receive a £5 free bet to use on in-play markets during the same match. Free bets expire at the end of the game.

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