How Newcastle show the challenges and charms of the new Champions League format

Newcastle United were a great advertisement for the old Champions League format. They were also the victims of it. They look to be beneficiaries of the new system even if, once again, a trip to Paris might come at a cost to them.

Seventh with a game to go now, they are set for another tense final day of the first stage. Two years ago, and within the space of half an hour, they went from a position of Champions League qualification to seeming set for a place in the Europa League, to out of Europe altogether. That was second, third and fourth in Group F: there was a simplicity to a system of four teams in a pool. There was a viciousness, too: as Newcastle went from leading AC Milan to losing to them, there was no safety net.

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Now it is safe to say Newcastle will occupy more positions at various stages of next Wednesday, simply because 18 games kick off simultaneously and 11 of them – 12 including United’s match against Paris Saint-Germain – can alter the equation for them. The table may need recalculating every few minutes.

Newcastle start as one of eight clubs on 13 points, followed by a further pair on 12. That could seem a proof of a healthy competitiveness, even if that brand of equality does not stretch across Europe. Eight of those 10 ply their trade in one of three domestic leagues – the Premier League, Serie A and La Liga – and, of the top 16 clubs in the table, only the French and Portuguese champions are not from England, Italy, Spain or Germany.

A criticism of a 36-team format where 24 had progress of some variety was that it only provided an illusion of jeopardy. That may not be entirely fair, given that the play-off round accounted for Manchester City, AC Milan and Juventus last season; motivations for avoiding it stretch beyond a couple of free midweeks in February.

Perhaps, if none of the supposed elite stumbles as badly as City did then, there will be no round-of-24 tie of the magnitude of City against Real Madrid. There is, though, the possibility that at least one of the sides currently just in the upper 16 – Internazionale, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund – drops below the dotted line to set up something similarly big.

The more significant dividing line seems to separate the top eight from the rest. Newcastle leapt six places by scoring three goals against PSV Eindhoven on Wednesday. That ever-changing nature of the league table offers an entertainment of sorts, though Eddie Howe was too preoccupied by the PSV game on Wednesday to have studied the connotations or examined others’ results. A fourth against the Dutch champions would have meant Newcastle could go to the Parc des Princes above Paris Saint-Germain on goals scored. Although, as it may take victory in the French capital to secure a top-eight spot, that might be irrelevant.

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Newcastle have spent every round hovering around the cut-off point. They were 11th after the second matchday, eighth after the third, sixth after four, 11th after five, 13th after six; always in contention, never fully there. In the eventual reckoning, the loss of leads away against Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen could be decisive. The concession of an 88th-minute equaliser in Germany may be especially galling and telling.

But if it illustrates the narrowness of the margins, a problem in the old four-team group was that too few of them contained such dangers. Yet Newcastle’s did. In 2023-24, they were drawn with PSG, AC Milan and Dortmund: their lack of a recent European pedigree meant they were fourth seeds. They came fourth. Two years on, and with a low Uefa coefficient again, Newcastle were placed in pot four; their peers there included Pafos, Qarabag and Kairat.

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A different system has brought meetings with two teams from each pot. This time, Newcastle have no win as spectacular as the 4-1 demolition of PSG at St James’ Park in 2023, no night to quite compare. But they have chalked up wins against Europe’s mid-ranking powers: Union Saint-Gilloise, Benfica, Athletic Bilbao and PSV. There has been an efficiency to those victories, each accomplished with a clean sheet. The play-off place they have guaranteed will be the furthest they have gone in this competition for two decades.

Viewed another way, though, Newcastle have only beaten one side from a top-five European league, in Athletic Club. Premier League resources ought to render English clubs heavy favourites against the rest.

And if it has proved less predictable than that – City have lost to Bodo/Glimt and Liverpool to Galatasaray and PSV, while Chelsea dropped two points against Qarabag – such results have helped create Uefa’s seismic showdown for eighth place. It may still not be as dramatic as Newcastle’s final group game in 2023, but perhaps the problem with the old format was that few groups were as compelling as that of Newcastle, AC Milan, PSG and Dortmund.