Latvia vs England prediction: Three Lions to seal place at 2026 World Cup

England travel to face Latvia on Tuesday as the Three Lions resume their qualifying campaign for the World Cup 2026, with automatic qualification secured if the visitors can grab a win in Riga.

Thomas Tuchel’s side arrive in the Latvian capital off the back of a 3-0 win against Wales last week, with Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins and Bukayo Saka the scorers as the Three Lions dominated a disappointing Wales side.

And now England resume their qualifying campaign at the top of Group K, having won all five of their opening matches to all but secure a place in the USA, Canada and Mexico next year even at this early stage.

The sixth match comes against a Latvia side that were beaten 3-0 the last time these two teams met, and the hosts’ results have scarcely improved since then, winning none of their last five since that defeat in March.

That run of results means that betting sites have the visitors as the overwhelming favourites this week versus huge odds for a surprise home win.

England will seal qualification for the 2026 World Cup if they win on Tuesday evening, and while that would be a welcome event for Thomas Tuchel and his squad, attention will immediately turn to the competition for places in a talented squad.

Some players will need to capitalise on the chances they’re getting at present if they want to be on the plane to North America, and it is perhaps that competition that has led to the more impressive displays of late.

The 5-0 win over Serbia and last week’s win over Wales underlined the depth and ability in Tuchel’s squad, and the players will be keen to continue this form ahead of a final international break of 2025 next month.

Though England haven’t yet begun to demolish teams - other than in that win over Serbia last month – that performance and the dismantling of Wales without a fully fit squad shows that the Three Lions are beginning to click in attack under Tuchel.

With Latvia having fallen to losses to Serbia and Albania – as well as a 2-2 draw to Andorra – in their last five matches, England remain heavy favourites, and football betting sites clearly think there’ll be over 3.5 goals – with many sites offering odds around 3/4.

However, with Kane returning, competition for places heating up and England beginning to click, we think the Three Lions will better their result from March, so we’ll go one higher with the prediction that there’ll be over 4.5 goals scored.

Latvia vs England prediction 1: Over 4.5 goals - 13/8 Ladbrokes

Harry Kane has had perhaps the most explosive start to the season of any player in Europe – bar Erling Haaland – with the England captain having scored 19 goals in 12 games to begin 2025/26.

He has bagged a remarkable 18 goals in 10 games for Bayern so far this term, including 10 goals in his last five games at club level, while for the Three Lions he scored against Serbia during the last international break.

Kane has scored in four of his last five appearances for the Three Lions - drawing a blank against Andorra in September – and opened the scoring in three of his last five matches, including in the win over Latvia in March.

In addition, he’s opened the scoring for Bayern in three of their last five matches too, with a combination of his usual superb positioning, deadly finishing and penalty duties meaning he is always worth considering when thinking about who might open the scoring.

And we’re backing him to do exactly that on his return to the team, especially in the absence of the injured Ollie Watkins.

Latvia vs England prediction 2: Harry Kane to score first - 12/5 Bet365

Latvia: Roberts Uldrikis and Kristers Tobers are absent due to injury, though manager Paolo Nicolato should have a full squad to choose from otherwise.

England: Ollie Watkins has been ruled out after sustaining a knock against Wales, while Jarell Quansah also returned to his club due to injury this week. Tuchel will have the remaining 22 players fit to choose from, including captain Harry Kane, who will be available after missing out at Wembley last week.

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