Voting begins in Texas as a Republican senator clings to Trump to keep his job

A Republican senator who is one of the most senior members of his party in the chamber could be out of a job in a few weeks.

The reason? Donald Trump.

Voters in Texas began heading to the polls on Tuesday as early voting began in one of the most-watched states of the 2026 cycle. Both Democrats and Republicans are watching high-profile primaries play out in Texas as Sen. John Cornyn’s seat becomes one of a handful of key races that will decide control of the chamber next year.

But more than most others, Cornyn’s race is defined by loyalty to the MAGA brand as well as fealty to the leader of that movement, Donald Trump. At a time when the MAGA brand is at its weakest since the immediate aftermath of January 6, the president’s coalition is still a sought-after commodity in deep-red Texas, especially as Cornyn fights tooth and nail against two Republican challengers seeking to leverage their own pro-Trump fervor against the senator’s.

Donald Trump, on Sunday evening, tossed his final wrench into the machinery: A remark to reporters on Air Force One indicating that he would not endorse a specific candidate in the primary ahead of the March 3 election. While a loss for all three Republicans, it was particularly a blow to the hopes of Cornyn, who’d been publicly calling on the president to endorse him and is seeking to allay concerns about his MAGA bona fides.

open image in gallery

If neither Cornyn nor one of his opponents, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt, achieves 50 percent of the vote on March 3, the top two candidates will go to a runoff in May. That means that Cornyn likely has more time to compete for the MAGA base’s favor. It also means that both sides will have more time to pour money into their respective party squabbles, depleting donations that could be spent on other races around the country. Both the Democratic and Republican races are likely to head to a runoff, but spending on the Republican side has been far greater.

A new poll last week found Paxton leading Cornyn by 7 percentage points. Another survey released on Monday found Paxton leading by 9 points.

In short, Cornyn is in serious trouble. Democrats have taken notice: The party is open about its view that Paxton’s potential victory represents a clear opening for Democrats to win the seat in November, emboldened by memos from the GOP’s Senate campaign arm essentially declaring the same thing.

On Tuesday, the DSCC released a memo trashing Cornyn as a weak incumbent and the GOP in “panic” mode about the bloody and detrimental fight that could cost the party a Senate seat.

open image in gallery

Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, called the primary “the biggest fight of Cornyn’s political life” in an interview with Bloomberg.

Cornyn’s campaign didn’t return a request for comment from The Independent regarding the memo. Already, the race is sapping money that could be used elsewhere: The New York Times reported this month that more than $50m has been spent by Cornyn’s allies on his behalf, dwarfing the sums being spent on the Democratic side.

His team campaigned on Tuesday with former Gov. Rick Perry, who was Trump’s Energy secretary for two years during the president’s first term and is one of the senator’s highest-profile supporters in the state. His campaign also highlighted the senator’s fundraising numbers; Cornyn’s team says it has more than $10m cash on hand heading into the primary and possible runoff. Attack ads blanket the airwaves in Texas.

“We are successfully raising the resources we need to execute our plan to win,” the senator’s campaign manager, Andy Hemming, said.

open image in gallery

That spending could easily multiply over the next few months. Alex Latcham, executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund (which is aligned with Senate GOP leadership), told the Times that he was urging Cornyn’s wealthy backers: “Spend now, shore up support for John Cornyn and ensure that he’s the nominee — so you don’t have to spend $100 million to $150 million in November.”

Paxton’s tactics for the final stretch were ones designed to appeal to a proudly pro-Trump base. His office announced investigations into several local school districts over anti-ICE protests, as well as a tipline for Texans to report “unlawful voting” they suspected to be occurring at polling places. Mirroring Trump himself, Paxton has been open about his willingness to use his office to boost his own profile and attack his enemies, something the Cornyn campaign has repeatedly accused him of doing.

He also touted an endorsement from singer Ted Nugent and blasted a Cornyn staffer for allegedly posting Hunt's Social Security number on X.

open image in gallery

Experts watching the race in Texas note that despite Cornyn’s frequent attacks against Paxton on the issues of his controversial divorce proceedings and criticisms around the attorney general’s use of his office, which led to a failed impeachment effort, Paxton has seemingly maintained a steady polling advantage.

“The striking thing about Ken Paxton is all these events, and if you add them individually or collectively, they haven't changed his ability to win elections. Not just win, but win handily,” Bill Miller, a political consultant based in Austin, told NPR.

Texas is increasingly becoming a serious problem for Republicans.

Even if the Democrats ultimately fail to take the seat, the damage may already be done. If nothing else, the massive amounts already spent in the race and set to be doled out over the runoff period are a sign that the Democrats have succeeded in launching real challenges in enough states to divide the GOP’s attention by putting Republicans on the defensive in areas they never predicted would be vulnerable. Their greatest ally in this endeavor continues to be Trump himself, as the president’s own acts of vengeance against his party have proven far more effective than his efforts to punish their foes.