CNN polling guru predicts a humiliating opening box office for Melania documentary
‘Melania’ is projected to earn between $1 million and $5 million opening weekend — after Amazon spent $75 million to acquire and promote it
CNN’s polling analyst Harry Enten has predicted a humiliating opening weekend for the documentary Melania.
Melania, the First Lady’s behind-the-scenes documentary, will have its premiere at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., Thursday, before hitting the big screen worldwide Friday.
Although President Donald Trump has said the upcoming flick, which reportedly cost Amazon a whopping $75 million to make and market, is a “MUST WATCH” with tickets “selling out, FAST,” the controversial documentary may not be as hot a ticket as he claims, according to Enten.
Melania has a 63 percent chance of getting a rating below 20 percent on the movie rating website Rotten Tomatoes, Enten said Tuesday during an appearance onCNN’s Erin Burnett OutFront.
“That’s not good, Erin. That’s not good, being below 20 percent,” Enten said, noting the projected earnings opening weekend for Melania were a measly $1 million to $5 million.
“Not so great,” he quipped.
He compared Melania to Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11, the top-grossing documentary of all time during its opening weekend, which earned $23.9 million in 2004. With inflation, that’s equivalent to $41 million in today’s dollars, Enten said.
“Melania, not anywhere close,” Enten said.
Enten noted the movie’s meager projected earnings for opening weekend compared to the $40 million Amazon paid to purchase the documentary’s rights, as well as an additional $35 million spent on marketing.
“All of the advertising, all of that jazz to try and build up that audience, which right now doesn’t seem like they’re rushing to actually see it,” Enten said.
CNN noted that Amazon’s CEO, Andy Jassy, attended a special black-tie White House premiere of the documentary Saturday. The Trump family received considerable backlash for the opulent event, held hours after 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti was fatally shot by a federal agent in Minnesota
Other VIPs at the event included Apple’s Tim Cook and Mike Tyson.
“The film Melania might not be doing so hot to trot come this weekend, but Jeff Bezos is doing quite well under Donald John Trump,” Enten said, noting Bezos’s wealth has grown by $35 billion since early November 2024.
“I think there are some people who might see a connection between that and the money being spent [by Amazon],” Enten claimed.
The controversial documentary, which follows the First Lady over the 20 days leading up to her husband’s inauguration, has also drawn backlash over its director, Brett Ratner.
Melania marks Ratner's comeback, as he has not directed a film since 2014’s Hercules after being accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women in 2017. Ratner has not been charged with any crime and has denied all allegations.
Amazon attempted to market the film as an inside look at the most mysterious woman in global politics, while providing insight into her relationship with her husband.
“Everyone wants to know, so here it is,” the First Lady says in the documentary’s trailer.
It remains to be seen how successful the marketing was.
Despite Trump’s claims that tickets are “selling out, FAST,” publicly-visible ticket sales at theaters across the U.S. and U.K. paint a different picture.
Social media users have shared screenshots of near empty theater bookings in major U.S. cities, including Boston’s largest AMC, as well as a so far empty Friday night showing at a Cinemark theater in Jacksonville, Florida.
Other social media users shared screen grabs of New York City AMC theaters with every seat still available. One user shared a screenshot of a Friday night showing in Times Square and wrote, “Question: Is zero seats sold for “Melania” on opening night at 7:30pm in Times Square bad, or is that normal?”
“Life hack: get an easy dopamine boost by checking out how Melania tickets are selling at your local movie theater,” one user wrote on X, sharing a screenshot of a theater with no seats sold.
Meanwhile, in the U.K., ticket sales for Melania so far are “soft,” Tim Richards, the chief executive of Vue, one of the country’s biggest movie theater operators, told The Guardian.
The paper reported that just one ticket has been sold for the first 3:10 p.m. screening Friday at its flagship Islington branch in London, while two have been booked for 6 p.m..
Melania is set to hit theaters worldwide Friday, January 30.
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