House speaker race: How the vote for McCarthy’s replacement will unfold

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House Republicans are hoping to choose a new speaker as soon as today, but nothing is clear about the outcome as the conference remains divided and enveloped in chaos.

Neither of the candidates – Louisiana Republican Rep Steve Scalise and Ohio Republican Rep Jim Jordan – are close to having majority support within the House Republican Party, and are even further away from reaching a majority on the floor of the chamber.

On Monday night, the House Republicans met for a meeting in the basement of the US Capitol as they shared their frustrations following last week’s ouster of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. While Mr McCarthy, who didn’t attend the meeting, has said he isn’t a candidate for the post, he has kept the door ajar to possibly returning.

Three members, Reps John Duarte (R-CA), Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), and John Rutherford (R-FL), said during the meeting that they would only back Mr McCarthy, according to Punchbowl News.

Republicans also slammed the eight members of the party who voted to oust Mr McCarthy, with two of them leaving the meeting early and avoiding speaking to reporters.

Both the House GOP leaders and rank-and-file Republicans agree that neither Mr Scalise nor Mr Jordan can win a floor vote as of this moment. Just over 60 members of the caucus have so far made public endorsements, according to CNN.

The conference will meet at 5pm on Tuesday in the Ways and Means Committee room in the Longworth building on Capitol Hill where Mr Scalise and Mr Jordan will address the party during a candidate forum.

The internal House Republican vote to choose a new speaker has been scheduled for Wednesday 11 October and following the attack on Israel by Hamas, the vote is now more urgent in order to get a speaker in place to allow the House to respond properly.

Reps Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Chip Roy (R-TX) are pushing for a rule change that would require a candidate to get 217 votes within the GOP conference before heading to a vote on the House floor. Mr Jordan and his backers are in favour of the change while Mr Scalise and his cohort are against it, Punchbowl notes.

Speaker pro tem Patrick McHenry (R-NC), the temporary holder of the post, said during the Monday night meeting that more than 100 members back the rule change. Some Republicans have argued that the rules should be changed to hand more powers to Mr McHenry to allow the House to be able to respond to crises even after a speaker has been ousted.

Mr Scalise and Mr Jordan are set to meet with the House Republican delegation from Florida, which has 20 votes, at some time on Tuesday.

On Sunday afternoon, Mr Scalise met virtually with the House Freedom Caucus, the group that Mr Jordan met with on Friday. Both Mr Jordan and Mr Scalise have also been trying to get the backing of more moderate Republicans, telling them that they would prioritise efforts to get them elected even as some of them represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020.

House Republicans debated which candidate would be best served to be speaker at the unofficial candidate forum.

The Democrats also held a forum on Tuesday, but without the debate as the party has remained unified behind Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

The Republicans will hold their internal vote to select the party’s nominee for speaker.

The vote of the full chamber may come as soon as Wednesday, but that’s no guarantee that the chaos will subside. The eventual nominee for the Republicans will decide when to bring their candidacy up for a vote on the floor.

In January, it took 15 votes for Mr McCarthy to finally get across the threshold to grasp the gavel. Currently, the majority needed for a speaker to be elected is 217 votes. The GOP nominee can only lose the backing of four Republicans – eight voted to oust Mr McCarthy last week.

When each House district has a representative, the number needed is 218, just over half of the House’s 435 seats.

The threshold of 217 may change if some members don’t show up to vote or if they choose to vote “present” instead of “aye” or “nay”.