Trump leads Biden in national poll as GOP primary nears

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Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by two points in the latest national polling of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.

The former president leads his successor by 46 to 44 per cent, with nine per cent either saying they don’t know who they would back or declining to answer the question.

According to the poll, which was conducted between 10 and 14 December, 92 per cent of respondents said they were at least somewhat likely to vote, with 29 per cent saying they were very likely to vote, and 53 per cent saying they were almost certain that they would show up at the ballot box.

In 2020, 66.8 per cent voted – the highest turnout of the 21st century.

If responding prospective voters weren’t forced to choose between Mr Trump and Mr Biden but were given the option of backing “another candidate” or saying they wouldn’t vote if they were the candidates, 39 per cent said they would back Mr Biden, 41 per cent said they would support Mr Trump and seven per cent said they would vote for another candidate. Five per cent said they wouldn’t vote and seven per cent either didn’t know or declined to answer.

In July, Mr Trump and Mr Biden were tied on 43 per cent each.

Among those not supporting either candidate, when asked, “If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward” Mr Biden or Mr Trump, 26 per cent said the Democrat, 24 per cent said the Republican and 50 per cent said they were unsure or refused to answer.

Among those taking part in the survey, 30 per cent said high school was their highest level of education, with 23 per cent reporting having a bachelor’s degree and 14 per cent having a graduate or professional degree.

Twenty per cent said the economy, including jobs and the stock market, was the most important problem facing the country, with 14 per cent saying inflation and the cost of living. Less than one per cent said abortion and less than half a per cent said election integrity, one of Mr Trump’s main hangups as he continues to make the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Ten per cent listed immigration as their top issue, with three per cent saying healthcare, and two per cent each saying crime and gun policies.

Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they approve of how Mr Biden is handling the job, with 58 per cent saying they disapprove. In July, 39 per cent approved of his job performance and 54 per cent disapproved.

Forty-three per cent said they had a favourable view of Mr Trump, while 55 per cent had an unfavourable view. For Mr Biden, those figures were 39 and 57 per cent respectively.

Asked about the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, 38 per cent said they thought Mr Biden would do a better job, with 46 per cent backing Mr Trump on the issue.