Can Blair’s ‘smooth operator’ help Starmer stem the rise of Nigel Farage?

It is a ritual that has become a mainstay in the Christmas diaries of influential circles. Tim Allan, one of the foundational figures in the rise of Tony Blair, regularly hosts a packed Islington get-together that is a “who’s who” of centrist politics. The event takes place at the period home he shares with his wife Carey, a civil servant, and their grown children. Veteran New Labour folk party to Cool Britannia hits joined by entrepreneurs, tech folk, off-duty state officials, and the remnants of the Cameron-Osborne era Tory tribe.

Allan, now 53, was a young man, not long out of Cambridge, when he helped Alastair Campbell shape the “Blair Project” from 1992, which saw his boss elected in a landslide victory in 1997. He was already assured in his own views – the only figure Blair once remarked teasingly was “even more right wing than me and still in the Labour family”.

Now he’s back, this time in a dramatic recall to the heart of the struggling Starmer government. After Monday’s “day of the long knives”, it was announced that Allan will return as executive head of communications following the ousting of James Lyons, who had only been heading up No 10’s media operation for a year.

The reshuffle also included the ushering in of senior Treasury staff tasked with shoring up the PM’s grip on his economic message.

After politics, Allan worked alongside Liz Murdoch at Sky as a strategic business planner and then set up Portland Communications – a breakthrough company combining public affairs advice with influential digital campaigns – before selling it for an estimated £20m in 2012.

Since then, he has been a serial investor in public affairs and media companies and a constant presence among the Labour elite. When he gathers clans for a bash, it always features some version of the old Blair anthem “Things Can Only Get Better”, a favourite in-joke for the former PM’s crowd, who now like Allan, are in their fifties and upwards.

Allan, who also owns a home in Italy, is unabashed in his pro-enterprise views. However, jokes about his personal wealth aside, he is still, as one of his old No 10 colleagues puts it, “Labour through and through.”

He hosts more serious dinners to support friends like Praful Nargund, the IVF entrepreneur turned head of the Good Growth Foundation, having failed (rather ruefully, he admits) to help get him elected against Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.

And while he has often appeared underwhelmed by the Starmer project, he has never subscribed to the view that the Labour government is doomed: “Don't forget he won a big victory,” he told a recent gathering when the mood had darkened among business guests. “And it’s not at all automatic that Labour wins elections. There is something there.”

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Yet going back into No 10 was not in the plan. Even his close family joked that Allan was now “unemployed and playing golf”. However, having shown a talent for business creation and serving as a non-executive and chair for many enterprises he invested in, the urge to combine high politics with modern ways of communicating was an itch unscratched. The fact that his fortune is considerable means he doesn’t need to do this job, but, as a senior former colleague puts it, “he really wants to do it, and that is what Keir needs right now.”

But Labour is still often uneasy with wealth and sensitive about business entanglements. When Allan set up Portland Communications, he acquired a range of international clients, with contracts ranging from autocracies like Qatar and Kazakhstan, and most controversially, a subcontract through another marketing/PR group that had worked to enhance the media image of the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin’s presence at the G8 summit in 2006. Something that had to be brought to an abrupt end when the reputational damage of dealing with Moscow outweighed any gain.

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Allan, however, has a strong personal reputation as a good boss and mentor, which has made him a sought-after figure for non-executive jobs and a serial backer of new businesses. He acquired a wide range of non-profit interests—from The Young Foundation, which focuses on social mobility, to serving as a non-executive at the prestigious Donmar Warehouse theatre, and as a governor at St Mary Magdalene Academy, a prime example of the city academies forged by Blair (and whose autonomy the present government wants to limit).

Some of these interests will need careful decoupling now that he’s in Starmer’s inner circle. He has already stepped down from many business directorships – including relinquishing his roles at Strand Partners and BB Partners, which specialises in social impact – in preparation for his public-service appointment. However, Thorndon Partners Ltd, an agency specialising in sensitive international litigation disputes he recently helped finance, still lists him as an active director.

The route to appointment in the SOS “Save our Starmer” role did not follow the conventional path of being chummy with the principal character. Allan told friends that he barely knew Starmer other than to say hello. The head of government communications role went to David Dinsmore, the former editor of The Sun and News UK executive, but Allan was also approached, giving Starmer a chance to get to know him.

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“I think there has been some caution on both sides,” says an old friend of Allan. “He has this Blair-ultra reputation, and Starmer knew he needed more help but isn’t always comfortable articulating it and is a bit prickly about his shortcomings.”

In the event, they got along so well – which should be no surprise, as Allan can be disarmingly witty, even when giving a critical assessment of a move or campaign. It ended with the “perfect solution”: he should come to No 10. That spelled curtains for James Lyons, the present media strategy head, who doubtless sensed that his days were numbered.

So, what can we expect? Allan will have been outspoken about weaknesses in the task of communicating a much crisper sense of the link between Starmer’s personality and his broader purpose.

Reform support is rising in traditional Red Wall areas, and Farage’s party has remained top of the polls for months, driven by public unhappiness about the cost of living, economy, and immigration. Starmer also faces the headache of Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s new left-wing party, and the Greens’ new leader Zack Polanski, appealing to young idealistic voters, splitting Labour’s support further.

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The back-to-school interview the PM gave to the BBC on Monday highlighted the challenge his new “comms boss” has to deal with: the odd segue into explaining that he had a flag of St George in his apartment to support the England football team and an awkward David Brent-style display of empathy with patriotic feelings on display this summer. The message was muddled – a good example of the task facing Allan and his team.

He will certainly be aware of the unhappy house he is entering. As a close friend of Liz Lloyd, a former Blair staffer turned banker who left her role as head of innovation and delivery this week, he will know exactly how testing conditions in No 10 are. There are numerous rival views and factions around Starmer currently, all giving contradictory advice and competing for favour.

He knows he is dealing with a different kind of political creature than the protean and performative early Tony Blair. Starmer is a man who came into power promising that politics would “tread a little more lightly” on voters’ lives, only to find himself embroiled in a turbo-charged era of multiple crises and sundry pratfalls.

Strategic communication, Allan once told me, is about “dealing with where you are now, whether you like it or not – and knowing where you need to go.” That challenge will decide whether the man who helped build Blair can rebuild today’s Labour PM.

Anne McElvoy is executive editor at POLITICO and co-host of the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast.