Could Labour lose Gorton and Denton? New polling puts Greens ahead for first time

There is less than a week to go until the crunch by-election in Greater Manchester’s Gorton and Denton constituency, which looks set to be one of Labour’s biggest tests to date.

All the candidates for the major parties continue to work on their intense short-notice campaigns in the southeast Manchester neighbourhood in the run-up to polling day.

Labour has named Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia as its candidate for the seat as the party attempts to defend its place and avoid a damaging defeat.

Meanwhile, Reform has announced GB News presenter Matt Goodwin as its choice, going against the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, a plumber and local councillor.

These were the three leading parties in the constituency in 2024, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats trailing behind George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain.

Remaining a Labour stronghold in some form since 1974, it would be a historic loss for Labour to cede Gorton and Denton to either Reform or the Greens on 26 February.

Here’s what the polls suggest:

Current polling is a mixed picture, but does reveal one definite thing: Labour will have a harder fight on their hands in the constituency than ever before.

While most MRP polls put Reform ahead of the incumbent party, these are worked out based on factors like the national polling picture, demographics and previous results.

The first constituency poll for the area, undertaken by Omnisis, puts the Green Party ahead slightly in the seat. The results put voting intention for the Green’s Hannah Spencer at 20 per cent overall, just up from Reform’s 17 per cent and Labour’s 15 per cent.

Crucially, the poll of 452 locals also found that 27 per cent remain undecided, while 13 per cent said they would not vote. This means that candidates still have a fight on their hands to win over these voters.

Two of the current main MRP polls put Reform ahead of Labour: Electoral Calculus, at 31.7 per cent to Labour’s 22.9, and Britain Predicts, at 32 per cent to Labour’s much higher 26.

Meanwhile, Polling Report predicts that Labour will hold the seat with 33.95 per cent of the vote, while Reform gets 27.98.

Here is a breakdown of each:

None of these three currently put the Greens ahead, however, they do not take factors like tactical voting into account.

This could be a major factor for Zack Polanski’s party, with Labour MPs recently briefing The Independent privately that they expect the Greens to benefit from Labour’s poor national popularity and a tactical anti-Reform vote at the ballot box.

Reorganised as Denton and Reddish in 1983 (and becoming Gorton and Denton in 2024), the seat has only been represented by two MPs since then, both Labour. This was first, Andrew Bennett, and – since 2005 – the outgoing Andrew Gwynne.

Labour retained a sizeable 13,413 majority in at the 2024 general election, with 50.8 per cent of the vote. However, this was down substantially from the 2019 result, when the party held a 22,175 majority and 67.2 per cent vote share.

Reform came second, with 14.1 per cent of the vote – a 9.2 point increase on 2019 – while the Greens came third, with 13.2 per cent (up 10.7 points). The turnout was also down from 61.7 per cent to 46.8.

This may explain Labour’s 16.4 point reduction, and indicates a trend many Labour MPs are concerned will continue in February.

The current polling for the seat confirms that it has become a much harder contest for Labour, vying with rising support for Reform while the Green Party also digs deeper into the incumbent party’s voter base.