Cardi B’s Super Bowl cameo sparks formal complaint to US regulator

A seemingly innocuous appearance by Grammy-winning rapper Cardi B at the Super Bowl halftime show has sparked a significant controversy within the burgeoning world of prediction markets, leading to a formal complaint filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The ambiguity surrounding her role during the spectacle left two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, grappling with how to settle millions of dollars in wagers.

Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade – or wager – on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.

The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0 per cent to 100 per cent chance of what traders think could happen.

More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi’s market for “ Who will perform at the Big Game? ” A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume.

Cardi B appeared alongside singers Karol G and Young Miko, and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a "starry front porch" during the halftime show. While she danced to the music, which also featured performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga, it remained unclear if she was actively singing.

Citing "ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance’," Kalshi settled its market at the last price before trading paused, subsequently refunding all users.

Polymarket, conversely, resolved its contract, affirming Cardi B had performed, though this decision faced user dispute. A final decision on this contract is anticipated on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a trader, who had backed a 'Yes' outcome on Kalshi, has lodged a complaint with the CFTC, alleging the platform violated the Commodity Exchange Act in its resolution of the Cardi B contract and is seeking $3,700 in damages. The complaint was first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and Front Office Sports.

Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on the day of the game, an increase of more than 2,700 per cent compared to last year's Super Bowl. The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was $828.6 million, up more than 2,000 per cent from last year.

The increased activity on Sunday caused some deposit issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.” She said the platform had reimbursed processing fees on the affected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.

Robinhood Markets also highlighted the robust performance of its prediction markets in its recent financial results. CEO Vlad Tenev expressed strong optimism, stating during an earnings call: "I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time. This year is going to be a big year. The Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer."