Venezuela’s fate is in the hands of the military but this fragile economy is not a lost cause

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox

Get our free View from Westminster email

SIGN UP

I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy notice

So, as many a failing state before it, Venezuela lies not in the hands of its leaders, its would-be leaders, its people or even some CIA-led Trump-inspired conspiracy. (Or at least not so far as we yet know). Instead, a broken, impoverished nation that still holds a future of huge potential will be in the hands of its generals.

Like the citizens of Sudan, Gabon and Zimbabwe in the past, Venezuela’s hungry and oppressed public (as well as the rest of the world) await the verdict of the bemedalled men in gold-braided epaulettes, mirror shades and oversized peak caps. Thus far, they have remained loyal to president Nicolas Maduro.

On Tuesday Mr Maduro, with some bravado, claimed victory against his internal enemies, the “coup-mongering far right”. His possible nemesis, opposition leader, president of the National Assembly and self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido took to the streets of Caracas and called on the people and, by implication, the armed forces to end Venezuela’s agonies.

He was disappointed but remains defiant. He is calling for more protests and for the military to oust the heir to Hugo Chavez and hand the Bolivarian republic into his care. It may not have assisted Mr Guaido’s efforts that he has attracted the public support of Donald Trump in his attempt at regime change. Even the most disillusioned Venezuelan might think twice about having their country being pushed around by the epitome of a Yankee bully.

There is surely, though, a sense that Venezuela cannot go on like this. Whoever is responsible for the economic chaos – hyperinflation, widespread shortages, including of petrol in this oil-rich state, unemployment, empty shops – they are creating revolutionary conditions.

It will either end in an outright dictatorship run by President Maduro, with military support, or in the replacement of Mr Maduro by Mr Guaido, also with military support. Alternatively, the top brass might decide they’d rather leave politicians out of the governance of Venezuela for the time being, until order is restored.

Mr Maduro claims the US is planning an intervention, and the White House has conspicuously failed to rule out such a move. President Trump and vice president Mike Pence, who has been the point man throughout the Venezuelan crisis, should make just that commitment against intervention, and readily. For it remains one of the few arguments Mr Maduro possesses as he presides over national chaos; that he is a guardian of something even more precious than the oil – Venezuela’s national independence.

By the same token, Mr Guaido would be well advised to reject any American assistance, covert or overt, for the very same reason. It is for Venezuelans to make their own future, not the international community, and especially not America.

If Venezuela has better luck than it has enjoyed in recent years, there will be some peaceful resolution to the turmoil. Regime change – internally driven – would become unnecessary if Mr Maduro reversed the destructive economic policies he inherited from Mr Chavez’s period of misrule, one in which some of the more outlandish effects of his high-spending projects were disguised by a stratospheric oil price.

Now Venezuela has been brought to ruin by the country’s inability to finance itself. It is bust. Mr Maduro could fix that, remarkably rapidly, were he not so stubborn and ideological, and apparently willing to put his personal hold on power and patronage before the welfare of his people.

Like any smart hard man, President Maduro has ensured the military are looked after, even as the rest of the country either tries to flee to Colombia or goes without food and running water. The president can also still call on some public support, but his hold on power seems tenuous. Sooner or later the armed forces may decide they could hardly do a worse job than either Mr Maduro or Mr Guaido.