Whichever judge Trump puts on the Supreme Court, it will be Obama's legacy that will suffer

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It does not really matter who is Donald Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy.

Whoever it is, it will likely be less of a swing vote than the retiring justice Anthony Kennedy who sided with the liberal justices on a number of divisive issues like same-sex marriage, and how far the government can intrude on a woman’s right to an abortion.

While President Trump will not alter the intrinsic make-up of the court – there will still be five conservative judges and four liberal – he will push it to the right. For activists that means rulings like the landmark abortion rights case of Roe v Wade are at risk. For Mr Trump it means the court will likely roll back Barack Obama-era rules, something that the president has made his mission.

Mr Trump knows that removing some progressive victories of the Obama era will play well with his supporter base, on issues like healthcare legislation, gay rights and immigration. The current president will also challenge as hard as he can in other areas where executive orders are not enough – such as environmental measures.

Of course a justice could also move further right or left in their political leanings are joining the court, but Mr Trump is clearly confident in picking from the list of 25 names provided to him with the help of a number of conservative organisations and interest groups.

The same could be said of Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, who could barely contain his glee on the Senate floor on Monday about the thought of making the court more conservative. While changing rulings like Roe v Wade may be the ultimate aim for a number of Republicans, a more right-leaning court could help to erase more of the legacy of Mr Trump’s predecessor.

Mr Trump has previously said he wanted “pro-life” justices opposed to abortion rights. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said on Monday that Mr Trump’s nominee should be obligated to make his or her views clear on matters like the Roe v Wade ruling. Adding that any of the justices Mr Trump will pick from poses a threat to women’s rights and Mr Obama’s signature healthcare legislation, the Affordable Care Act.

Mr Schumer flagged the fact that, with little warning, Mr Trump’s administration announced over the weekend it is freezing payments under an “Obamacare” programme that protects insurers with sicker patients from financial losses. If the decision is made permanent, it would lead to higher premiums.

Mr Schumer says the administration’s action highlights the stakes for senators in confirming a new justice.

He said: “Because President Trump has said repeatedly that he would nominate judges to overturn the ACA, the Supreme Court vacancy is only further putting healthcare front and centre, raising the stakes for maintaining these vital health care protections.”

Senior Democrats have used Americans to join the fight against any nominee, with Mr Schumer’s office in Manhattan set to be the scene for a protest on Monday night to call for him to push Democrats into voting against any nominee.

Not long after Mr Schumer spoke, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell accused the “far left” of engaging in “scare tactics” over the nominee.

It is true that Republicans hold the slimmest majority in the Senate and chamber’s number two Republican John Cornyn said his party knows it is in for a contentious battle to confirm Mr Trump’s nominee to serve on the Supreme Court, but that the GOP “won’t back down from the fight”.

Republicans and Democrats have traded barbs over the nomination, with Mr Cornyn saying it is “extremely disappointing” that some Democrats have made clear they will oppose Mr Trump’s choice. But in reality, the nominee is likely to make it through, allowing the president’s legacy to last for decades at least on the Supreme Court, while also removing the legacy of his predecessor Mr Obama.