It is better for Rishi Sunak to lose an election than to win ugly
Anthony Seldon – biographer of six prime ministers – explains which lessons the current occupant of 10 Downing Street could stand to learn from history, and why the return of the ‘nasty party’ would be a mistake
Theresa May bravely used the words “nasty party” at the October 2002 party conference to describe a series of intolerant Conservative policies and attitudes within the mainstream party towards those without power or voice in society.
The party didn’t listen, went on to select Michael Howard the following year as the successor to Iain Duncan Smith. Not till the election of David Cameron in 2005 did the party begin to embrace new concerns across the country which came to the fore at the beginning of the new century, as they had 100 years before when the party under Lord Salisbury was slow to respond. The party lost power in 1905 for nearly 20 years.
Could we be hearing, at the end of this long period of Conservative government since 2010, some of the same tendencies that lead Theresa May to speak out?
I rate Rishi Sunak highly as a thoroughly professional, hard-working and serious minded politician, eager to do the best. But he needs to take stock of what is happening. He has been micro managing for too long, and needs to think strategically. He won’t get another chance. Five pledges is not a prime ministerial strategy – Keir Starmer, please note. The best PMs have been inspirers and liberators of others, setting the direction, not getting mangled in the cogs.
His eyes seem fixed utterly on the next general election. To win would be a unique historic achievement – no party since modern electoral politics were born in 1832 has won a fifth general election in a row. The party’s pollsters and right-wing newspapers are all be telling him that right-wing policies are the way. I expect his advisers will be urging him to ignore the squeamish and lily-livered, and press ahead with full blooded, right-wing policies.
One can just imagine what his advisers in Downing Street and Conservative party headquarters are saying to him. Perhaps something like this?
The environment? “Forget that Cop crap. Farage will outflank you on the right if you go soft on the environment. Isn’t the science dodgy anyway? Ignore the bleatings from Zac Goldsmith – who cares if he really does join Labour? He’s irredeemably woke and we’re better off without him and his ilk”.
Migrants? “Unless we hit hard and show we mean business with Rwanda and inhospitable barges, the flow will just continue. Tough about what’s happening in the Mediterranean, but that’s really not our problem. Legionella? Really?”
Foul language from deputy chair of the party Lee Anderson telling migrants to ‘F off back to France’? “Come on prime minister, he was only saying what many people thought. Let’s ignore it. It’s August. People have short memories. Move on”.
The EU? “Keep on bashing away at it, and we’ll find fresh stories to show how awful it was, and how British freedom and sovereignty was restricted for years under the yoke of Brussels”. “Leave the ECHR? “Well, that might be just a step too far. But, there again, Prime Minister…”.
Culture wars? “ Let’s keep up the war on Whitehall, the BBC, Universities, the Judiciary. The press loves a good bash at wokery Sure, a lot of it’s exaggerated, but it does the business”.
Being the prime minister is the loneliest job in the world. You have no option but to lean on your close advisers. But their hopes and aspirations are not always those of the prime minister. They will be thinking primarily of their own careers, and will do anything to advance them. Winning general elections is more important than anything. A minority can see further. But most don’t. If the prime minister dies, they die.
But the prime minister is a different animal. They need an integrity and an awareness that transcends party politics. The moment they step through the front door at Number 10 for the first time, they change utterly. Or should. They become a national leader. They need to defend national institutions. Forget that, as did Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and bad things happen.
It is better to lose a general election, than to win ugly, which is what might happen.
The prime minister should be thinking about the national interest. If the Conservative party wins on a set of right-wing policies, which is not the place that is has won from historically, mayhem will result. It will be the hollowest election victory since the 19th century. The party will tear itself apart after the election, win or lose.
John Major’s stock stood at an all-time low after he lost the general election in 1997. But it has risen steadily since amongst historians. Why? Because he kept the Tory party in the middle, and was transparently an honourable leader.
Sunak, like every single predecessor as PM in Downing Street, would do better to read more history, and rely less on his advisers, however smart. I have more than passing interest in what he does now: I’ve just started planning ‘Sunak at 10’. The pen is poised.
Anthony Seldon is the author of ‘Johnson at 10: The Inside Story’ and ‘The Impossible Office?: The History of the British Prime Minister’
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