The eyes of the world are on Iran – and Donald Trump

The world is watching Iran,” the foreign secretary told the House of Commons on Tuesday. Yvette Cooper is right about that, and also correct to caution that only some of what has been happening there in recent days can be seen and heard outside the country.

The internet and international phone blackout has made an already difficult situation for the media in Iran even worse. It has obviously been in the interests of the Iranian authorities to hide what they have been doing to their own people. Even so, verifiable images of piles of corpses and reports of indiscriminate direct violence towards crowds of civilians have emerged from the country.

Such violence is entirely consistent with the Islamic Republic’s general attitude towards dissent seen since its inception in 1979, and seen at scale after a presidential election for the civilian arm of the regime was stolen in 2009, and in the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement in 2022.

At that time riots were sparked by the killing of Mahsa Amini while she was in the custody of the so-called morality police for the crime of wearing her hijab incorrectly. As a martyr conspicuously murdered for their freedom, she is now joined by another young woman, Rubina Aminian. The latest news is that this fashion student was struck in the head by a bullet from behind, at close range.

The signs are that there are many more such casualties, with around 2,000 dead, including security personnel, according to an Iranian security official. Executions are on the way for some being dealt with by the regime’s unique style of rough justice.

Such has been the ferocity of the violence ordered by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that some people may be too frightened to take to the streets, with the high risk of immediate death attached. But still some will, and still the symbols of the Islamic Republic are being torn down, and still hijabs are being burned.

That is why the eyes of the world are also on Donald Trump. His latest message on social media was to tell “Iranian patriots” to “KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” because “help is in its way”, presumably from the Americans. This is dangerous, even if this vague promise is followed up by some kind of military intervention, because such intervention might not actually arrive at all.

The secondary US tariffs imposed on Iran’s trading partners won’t restrain the Revolutionary Guards and the police from opening fire. It is inviting Iranians, not Americans, to put their lives on the line with no guarantee that the regime will fall.

Without that, there will be no opportunity for Iranians to avenge themselves on their “killers and abusers”, and extract the “big price” the president says they’ll pay.

Mr Trump has been wise enough to evacuate all remaining US citizens from Iran, and thus remove the risk that they’ll be used as hostages or human shields. Unfortunately, two British citizens, Craig and Lindsay Foreman, remain in captivity. Britain, in concert with the EU, is imposing yet more sanctions, but these will not be decisive in the short run. The situation in Iran is as tense as it has been in many years.

The world is therefore also watching President Trump’s next substantive moves, as well as those of the Ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guards. What would be tragic is if there was another tremendous wave of protest across Iran, resulting in a bloodbath and with no meaningful help coming from the Americans and Europeans.

There cannot be a repeat of the terrible fate that befell the Marsh Arabs and Kurds in Iraq in 1991, after the defeat of Saddam Hussein in the first Gulf war. At that time another American president, George HW Bush, encouraged these minorities to rise up against Hussein, only to leave them undefended as they were viciously crushed.

Regime change remains the objective, but the present regime is stubborn, has proved extraordinarily resilient, and, when panicked, is capable of extreme cruelty.