If Brexit can happen, so can a Donald Trump government
Just like capital markets, no one will ever know the outcome until it happens
Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UK
Sign up to our Brexit email for the latest insight
For anyone in denial about the likelihood of a Donald Trump presidency, take a look at Brexit, and how the capital markets reacted to it.
Within 24 hours of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, $3tn of capital market value was decimated. The sterling currency sank to a three-decade low. The key index of global volatility, the VIX, jumped from 17 to 25 points.
The reaction was so extreme because the end result had not been priced in. The majority of buyers and sellers had not expected it. The polls had also not predicted it.
Just like the capital markets, elections are driven by people. People change their minds; quickly, even last minute. People are driven by emotions and by information that they are told, or want to believe. You can hire the best informed analysts, stock pickers and fund managers who are paid millions to take big bets, but they are also taking big risks. Ultimately, they will never know the outcome of any event until it's too late.
People are fundamentally irrational, and unpredictable.
Nobody can argue, therefore, that “Mr Brexit” – the self-appointed nickname of Donald Trump – will not make it into the White House.
Polls fluctuate all the time, but they currently indicate that Hillary Clinton is in the lead – by as much as 11 points, according to the latest reading from an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Swing states, including Ohio and Florida, recently gave Trump the nod, suggesting they are still fragile territory. But there are also polls – arguably outliers – which suggest the opposite. The Rasmussen “White House Watch” found that Trump was ahead by three points between 17 and 19 October.
Clinton recently voiced a question to the Labourers’ International Union of North America: “Why aren’t I 50 points ahead, you might ask?”
It’s a good question, one that still has not been answered.
In a world that fears the “other”, where the UK and now the US are increasingly isolationist, Trump is playing into the hands of a large segment of the population who are looking for a scapegoat for their problems.
The rhetoric in the US mirrors that which has been festering in the UK over the last year, where both the Ukip and the Conservatives were knee-deep in fear mongering, accusing new London mayor Sadiq Khan of having links with extremism, and linking Romanian immigrants with crime.
Forget wrong and right. The outcome on 8 November doesn’t come down to the current investigation into the Trump Foundation, his many lawsuits, his alleged fraud, sexual assault, corruption, racism and bigotry, or his apparent lack of knowledge of foreign affairs.
He still managed to achieve the seemingly unthinkable – he became the party nominee.
We’ve had the likes of Silvio Berlusconi, we’ve had Nigel Farage, and the world could end well end up with Donald Trump.
In the end, there is only one key difference between Brexit and the case of a Trump administration.
We don’t know when Brexit will happen. It could be next year, it could be 2019 – some say it might never happen.
But we have a firm date for when the new US president will step into the White House: 20 January 2017.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies