Rupert Cornwell: History repeats itself in clash with Republicans

A game of political and financial chicken, played out in a mixture of fraught backstage negotiations and shameless public posturing that threatens to bring the machinery of federal government in the US to a halt. Sound familiar? It should. A similar movie played 15 years ago.

In some ways, the similarities between events now in Washington and the two shutdowns between November 1995 and January 1996 are striking. Then as now, a first-term Democratic president was pitted against a Republican majority on Capitol Hill, and then as now there were tensions in Republican ranks.

This time around, John Boehner, the pragmatic Speaker of the House, has been driven by the Tea Party newcomers into a confrontation that he would have preferred to avoid. In 1995, the headline battle was between Bill Clinton in the White House and Newt Gingrich, the firebrand Republican Speaker.

But behind the scenes Mr Gingrich was at odds with Bob Dole, the canny, hugely experienced Republican majority leader in the Senate, who realised that a shutdown would spell big trouble for his party's (and thus his own) chances of unseating Mr Clinton in the 1996 election.

Mr Dole proved right. The American public blamed the impasse on Republican intransigence. Some displays of petulance by Mr Gingrich did not help, and the following November Mr Clinton cruised to a second term.

Today, by a two-to-one margin, Americans say they want a compromise. In the absence of one, the Republicans again are likely to be seen as the main culprits.

And even though the 1995-96 crisis cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and caused genuine hardship for some, it will be remembered for events unconnected with government.

The first closure, from 14 to 19 November 1995 left Mr Clinton with too much time on his hands. On 15 and 17 November, he had his first two sexual encounters with Monica Lewinsky, setting in motion a scandal that became public in January 1998, and lead to impeachment proceedings.

During the second shut-down, over Christmas 1995 and the New Year, there was a third encounter.