Theresa May has lost control of Brexit. She’s in office, but no longer in power

When MPs vote tonight on whether to block a no-deal exit from the EU on 29 March, it will be a highly symbolic moment. Conservative MPs will enjoy a rare free vote, a telling sign of both Theresa May’s weakness and the transfer of power from the government to parliament.

If she had tried to whip her MPs, May would have faced a wave of resignations by either Brexiteers or pro-EU ministers, further destabilising her administration and possibly forcing her out. She has lost control of events after last night’s second crushing Commons defeat for her Brexit deal. She is in office – just – but no longer in power. She has lost the confidence of parliament and her cabinet. Westminster is awash with speculation that a delegation of senior ministers and Tory MPs will soon tell her that her time is up.

If the UK is to “take back control” of its destiny, that will have to be done by MPs, rather than May’s ailing government. Inevitably, pro-Brexit newspapers are blaming MPs for rejecting May’s deal. Today’s Daily Mail calls the Commons “The House of Fools”. A government of fools would be more accurate.

MPs have refused to be blackmailed by the prime minister into backing a bad deal. However, they must now rise to the challenge of this perilous moment. They cannot continue to declare merely what they are against, and must face up to what May called “unenviable choices”.

MPs with much in common should stop squabbling over small differences, such as those between supporters of a Final Say referendum and a Common Market 2.0 (or Norway Plus) agreement, which would keep the UK in the single market and a customs union. Both still want their favoured option to be “the last one standing”.

Referendum campaigners insist support among MPs for Common Market 2.0 and other Brexit options should be tested first, since a referendum is a solution if all of them are rejected. Although there is not yet a Commons majority for a Final Say vote, there is still a path to one. The People’s Vote campaign insists the number of MPs backing a referendum has risen from 30 to somewhere between 250 and 280, so it is plausible that a continuing impasse could get it over the magic 320 mark. But to achieve that, Jeremy Corbyn will need to implement Labour’s democratically decided policy of a “public vote” when other options such as a general election have been exhausted.

Noticeably, Corbyn did not mention a referendum in his Commons response to last night’s defeat – even after Theresa May did. The prime minister doesn’t support a Final Say, or the general election that Corbyn wants. May won applause when she told a private meeting of Tory MPs yesterday she would not seek an election. Although some Tories now regard an election as inevitable, they certainly don’t want May to lead them into one.

In any case, an election would not necessarily resolve the Brexit crisis. Another hung parliament would be likely, so we might end up with another Tory-DUP pact or a Labour-SNP one. The two main parties, divided over Brexit, might offer more fantasy deals that would never fly with the EU. It would not automatically be a "Brexit election". May tried that in 2017, but Corbyn skilfully turned the spotlight onto austerity. So a referendum may now be the only way out of the Brexit maze.

A supine cabinet should force May to come up with a Plan B, a soft Brexit based on a customs union, which might command a Commons majority. The cabinet should insist on a series of indicative free votes on Brexit options, before MPs take matters into their own hands.

Incredibly, May’s Plan B is still Plan A, despite her humiliation last night. She still sees her deal as the only game in town. With a no-deal expected to be taken off the table tonight, the prime minister intends to use the threats of a long delay on the EU’s terms and no Brexit at all to browbeat Eurosceptics into backing her agreement in a third Commons vote.

May has ducked the "unenviable choices”. She seems incapable of building a cross-party consensus. She could have tried to unite the country in 2016, instead of ignoring the 48 per cent. She should have reached across the Commons after losing her majority in 2017 but ploughed on, in denial about the parliamentary arithmetic.

So MPs will have to do it by themselves. Over to our shadow government – the likes of Labour’s Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn, and the Tories Sir Oliver Letwin and Nick Boles. They may revive a bill to allow backbenchers to seize control of the Commons agenda, an unprecedented move and another crushing blow for May.

May will resist this power grab, of course. But she has made such a mess of it that these senior MPs can hardly do any worse.