Elon Musk says AI surgeons will be better than humans in just three years

Elon Musk has claimed Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot will be better than the world’s best human medical surgeons in just three years' time.

The Tesla CEO made the claims while speaking to U.S. physician and engineer, Peter Diamandis, who hosts the “Moonshots” podcast.

“Right now there’s a shortage of doctors and great surgeons,” Musk said.

“[It takes] a super long time to learn how to be a good doctor, and even then, the knowledge is constantly evolving, it’s hard to keep up with everything. Doctors have limited time, they make mistakes. How many great surgeons are there?” he asked. “Not that many.”

“When do you think Optimus will be a better surgeon than the best surgeons, how long for that?” Diamandis asked.

Musk replied: “Three years. And by the way, that’s three years at scale. There will probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are all surgeons on Earth.”

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The SpaceX founder first unveiled prototypes of the Optimus robot in 2022 and suggested the first production models could be available the following year.

Two years later, in 2024, Musk said the target date for selling the robots was 2026.

One expert in health policy told The Independent that Musk is “too optimistic” and that widespread use of robots for major surgery would prove “impossible for many, many years.”

Professor Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, said of Musk’s claim to have Optimus working as a better surgeon than the world’s best human surgeons in three years: “That claim is not credible.”

“Progress in robotic surgery has been slow [such as for] prostate operations, for example.

He said: “It is hardly likely that robots will be able to outperform humans in three years in all areas of surgery – cardiac, brain, orthopedics, plastic, pediatric, etc.”

Caplan said this was because there is “too much human variability to permit accurate programming,” and because it “will take years to compare outcomes to demonstrate equivalence.”

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“Some surgery borders on art – plastic, burn and trauma repair – programming that will prove perhaps impossible for many many years,” he said.

However, he said the use of robotics is already changing the face of medicine, and that people should expect further technological advances as healthcare advances.

For example, the automation of some elements in radiology and pathology to scan and read tests is already in use.

“But robo-surgery, no. Remember, we still can’t get robot drivers to navigate city streets with taxis or delivery trucks safely. Surgery is just as hard.”

He added, “Musk is too optimistic in my view. Yes, robot doctors are coming, but not in any widespread way for many, many years.”

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Musk has also heightened concerns about how the deployment of humanoid robots will be received by the public, not least because in October last year, Musk repeatedly referred to the development of Optimus units as a “robot army” during discussions with the Tesla board about his controversial $1trillion pay package and levels of control he had over the company.

“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is, if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future?” he said, according to Wired.

“If we build this robot army, do I have at least a strong influence over this robot army?”

"I just don't feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted,” he said.