Senegal vs Morocco prediction: Diaz to seal golden boot as Atlas Lions land famous victory

Morocco take on Senegal in the final of the 2025/26 Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday, with the hosts looking to win a first Afcon since 1976 as they take on the Teranga Lions in Rabat.

The Atlas Lions secured their spot in a first final since 2004 with a dramatic penalty shootout win over Nigeria in the semi-finals, and Walid Regragui’s side carry the expectations of a nation when they take to the pitch at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium on Sunday evening.

However, the hosts will go into the match s heavy favourites, with betting sites offering odds as low as 13/10 for the Atlas Lions to emerge victorious at Afcon for a first time in 50 years.

But while the hosts’ squad quality, superior firepower and pragmatic performances make them worthy favourites this weekend, they know they will face a tough test against 2021 winners Senegal, led by Sadio Mane and boss Pape Thiaw.

The Teranga Lions squeezed past Egypt in the semi-final courtesy of a well-taken goal from talisman Mane, though the mixed nature of their performances so far means they are 13/5 underdogs as they take on the hosts in a fascinating final in the capital.

This year’s final pits two under-achieving continental giants against each other, with both Morocco and Senegal having won just one previous Afcon title. Senegal won as recently as 2021, but the Atlas Lions have to go back half a century to their only victory in the competition.

The hosts come into the showpiece event with plenty of expectation on them, partly due to hosting the competition and partly due to their run to the 2022 World Cup semi-finals, which has given them a certain status on the continent even three years later.

The quality of Morocco’s squad also meant they were favourites from an early stage this winter, and they have so far repaid that faith with a string of solid performances on the way to the final.

The narrow win over Tanzania was followed by a professional performance as they breezed past Cameroon, and while the win over Nigeria had to come via penalties, it was the hosts who were by far the better side throughout.

And while Morocco have scored nine goals over their six games so far, it’s their defensive record that’s most impressive, with the Atlas Lions having conceded just once across the entire tournament (in their second match, against Mali).

The final sees them face a Senegal side who have been quietly impressive without setting the tournament alight, with the likes of Iliman Ndiaye, Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson providing plenty of quality in key areas.

The Teranga Lions have scored 12 goals across their six matches in the lead-up to the final and have only conceded twice, but the absence of the suspended Kalidou Koulibaly will be a huge miss in defence.

Football betting sites think that a Morocco win and a clean sheet is the likeliest outcome at 12/5, and given the hosts home advantage and superb defensive record, we’re inclined to agree.

Senegal vs Morocco prediction 1: Morocco to win to nil - 12/5 Bet365

Morocco forward Brahim Diaz comes into the final leading the scoring charts for the tournament, with the 26-year-old having scored five goals across his six games so far.

The Real Madrid man should finish with the Afcon golden boot barring a minor miracle, with teammate Ayoub El Kaabi the closest player to him in the scoring charts (out of those playing in the final) with three goals.

Diaz will once again be the main goalscoring threat for the hosts on Sunday, and though he was unusually ineffective against Nigeria in the semi-final, he still got into promising positions and flashed wide with a header and a solid curling effort.

And the fact remains that Diaz had scored a goal in each of the five matches before that semi-final, including the winner against Tanzania in the last 16 and a key opener against Cameroon in the quarter-finals.

With the Morocco talisman taking penalties for his side and coming up against a weakened Senegal defence – without key man Koulibaly – we think he should add another goal to his tally on Sunday to secure the golden boot.

Senegal vs Morocco prediction 2: Brahim Diaz to score anytime - 3/1 Ladbrokes

Senegal: The Teranga Lions will be without captain Kalidou Koulibaly and midfielder Habib Diarra after both players were booked in the semis, earning them a suspension due to accumulation of yellow cards. However, Thiaw should have a full squad to choose from other than that duo.

Morocco: The hosts managed to escape their 120-minute semi-final unscathed in terms of injuries and suspensions, with Walid Regragui able to pick from a squad that is almost at full strength. Roman Saiss and Azzedine Ounahi are the main absentees from earlier in the tournament, though the latter is pushing for a return to fitness ahead of the final.

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