Would Jake Paul stand a chance against Anthony Joshua?

Anthony Joshua is on the hunt for an opponent to begin his comeback after a devastating knockout defeat against Daniel Dubois last year, and among the names being circulated is Jake Paul.

After his points victory over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, Paul has been calling out Joshua – believing he has what it takes to beat the Brit.

Eddie Hearn, Joshua’s promoter, has admitted that they are open to discussions with Jake Paul.

Hearn told iFL TV: “We are planning life without Jake Paul, but if that is for real, of course, we take that fight in a heartbeat.”

Paul’s manager, Nakisa Bidarian, has since told Sky Sports that they are “actively discussing it with Matchroom.”

If this fight gets made, it will be a tall order for the Ohio native to be competitive against a two-time unified heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medallist, but could he actually pull it off? Here is the breakdown of all the key factors to consider.

Should the two ever meet, the starkest difference between them would be the enormous five-inch height discrepancy paired with a six-inch reach difference.

‘AJ’ stands at a towering 6’6” compared to Paul at 6’1”.

This presents a well-documented set of problems. To be able to have any success over a man of Joshua’s skill and size, Paul must be able to get himself close enough to land.

Because of his amateur pedigree, Joshua has well-schooled footwork and a long, sharp jab, which, if Paul cannot get past, will leave him at the end of a volley of heavy artillery.

But this is not a challenge unique to the American; such is the breadth of the heavyweight division, with no weight limit, fighters come in all shapes and sizes.

Examples of fighters who have been able to overcome similar height and reach disadvantages are David Haye and Mike Tyson.

When David Haye took on Nikolai Valuev in 2009 for the WBA heavyweight title, ‘The Hayemaker’ gave away nine inches in height to Valuev, who stood at seven feet tall, but he still got his hand raised.

Meanwhile, Tyson spent much of his career punching up, standing at only 5’10”, but was one of the most destructive champions in heavyweight history.

So what is the common denominator for success as the shorter man? Explosiveness.

What Tyson and Haye mastered was being able to avoid incoming fire to get in close, then unloading their own heavy combinations before retreating to safety and out of range of their opponents.

This is the only way Paul would be able to effectively lay a glove on Joshua - applying smart pressure to keep him on the back foot and explode into range to throw his shots.

But as the adage goes…a good big man beats a good small man.

open image in gallery

Joshua has been consistent in his weight throughout his career, usually tipping the scales between 240 and 250lbs, putting him toward the upper end of the division.

Paul usually weighs between 190 and 200lbs as a cruiserweight. But when he fought Mike Tyson, he bulked up to an impressive 228lbs to match the former heavyweight champion.

But this steep increase in weight saw Paul perform sluggishly against Tyson and struggle with his endurance, something he cannot afford to do against an athlete like Joshua, who has been conditioned at his weight for well over a decade.

If we draw a comparison to Oleksandr Usyk, who holds a similar frame to Paul, the way in which he was able to find success, at his size, against Joshua was with constant upper-body and lateral movement.

If Paul can condition himself at 220lbs to be able to maintain that constant motion and work rate, then he might be able to overwhelm Joshua in the early going, but he must be proactive.

open image in gallery

Experience cannot be substituted – thousands of hours of drilling, sparring, studying and most importantly, fighting all carve an elite level fighter out of the stone of a plucky amateur with dreams of one day holding a world title.

This is an insurmountable disadvantage for Paul that would, without a doubt, show if the two were to fight.

AJ had a glittering career as an amateur fighter, winning multiple national championships, a silver medal at the world championships and a famous gold medal at the 2012 Olympic Games in London.

Across over 50 fights, Joshua will have had access to the best coaches and sparring partners at the Performance Institute in Sheffield, honing his skills to eventually turn over as a professional.

Paul has no amateur background to speak of, having only one white collar fight before becoming a pro and has since accumulated 13 fights, boxing a total of 70 rounds.

Joshua is more than double Paul’s total in both total fights and rounds. This gives him not just the benefit of more time in the gym, but also more experience with different styles and the ability to stay composed in times of trouble.

open image in gallery

Momentum and activity are essential components for a fighter to be able to build confidence and trust their ability to perform.

Paul certainly has the benefit of both, coming off a career-best win against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr and being undefeated in his last six fights, putting himself in with increasingly staunch opposition.

Both of the American’s last fights have gone the distance, with Paul walking away as the clear winner, showing a man full of confidence in his ability to see out a contest.

A knockout defeat against Daniel Dubois has punctuated a downturn in Joshua’s career, started by back-to-back losses to Usyk.

Joshua has not beaten a fighter resembling elite level since Andy Ruiz in 2019.

It is important to mention that ‘confidence’ is an intangible asset and cannot be measured, but if Paul enters the ring with the belief to go at the former champion and ignore the obvious physical disadvantages, then he might just stand a chance at being competitive.

A DAZN subscription provides access to over 185 fights a year across a range of combat sports from the world's best promoters. For pricing and more information, click here.