Ukraine frontline mapped: Kyiv counteroffensive regains territory as peace talks resume

US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have resumed this week, as the fourth anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s invasion fast approaches.

Territory remains the key sticking point between the two sides, with delegations meeting in Geneva on Tuesday and Wednesday.

There has been little progress in the talks to date, with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky recently sharing his frustration that his country is “too often” asked to make concessions.

Kyiv, however, may well be emboldened by its recent territorial gains. Advancing some 201 sq km between Wednesday and Sunday, Ukraine’s forces have effectively cancelled out Russia’s gains for the entire month of December, according to an analysis of data from the US-based monitor, the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia’s main effort, meanwhile, will continue to focus on eastern Ukraine, where a ‘fortress belt’ of trenches, bunkers, minefields and barbed wire holds advances to a slow crawl.

Ahead of the fourth anniversary of the war on February 24, Russian advances continue to move at a “footpace” and “do not portend the collapse of the Ukrainian lines”, according to the ISW’s latest assessment.

Russian forces claimed 141 sq km in the week commencing 25 January, but gains fell to just 74 sq km in the week commencing 8 February.

Ukrainian liberation efforts may not wield the same momentum as in the summer 2023 counteroffensive, but steady progress through November and December has helped decrease sum Russian gains in recent weeks.

Emil Kastehelmi, military analyst with Finland-based open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group, told The Independent that the latest figures may not represent a strategic shift, but could offer some political relief in talks.

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“The Ukrainians have managed to liberate various villages in the Zaporizhzhia and the Dnipropetrovsk oblasts,” he said. “This section of the front is of less importance than when we look at what’s operationally or strategically important.”

“It's clear that they have now advanced various kilometres in various places that and they have taken the initiative locally. But there are a lot of different ways to paint this.”

According to Ukrainian milblogger Konstantin Mashovets, Ukraine by Sunday had pushed Russian forces from the villages of Ternuvate and Kosivtseve, crossed the Haichur River, liberated Dobropillya and cut through the Russian lines to the east.

Russian troops managed advances in the direction of Novopokrovka-Mala Tokmachka, Kamyanske-Lukyanivske, Plavnia-Primorske and Stepove-Pavlovka, Mashovets reported.

But in recent days, “the pace of advance of the advanced units and divisions of the Russian troops in these directions first dropped significantly, and then almost completely ‘reduced to zero’.”

Ukrainian troops in some areas of Donetsk mustered successful counterattacks, managing “not only to sharply slow down the enemy’s general offensive ... but also to force the Russian command to withdraw its advanced units back”.

Mr Kastehelmi assessed: “It seems that Ukraine actually really wants to hold on to the defensive line at the Haichur River. And the Russians had crossed it in a few places, and now they have been pushed back. But that’s just a tactical change in this situation. It doesn’t really tell much about the longer trends.

“When we look at recent years, it’s a relatively successful counterattack in terms of gained square kilometres. However, just looking at one variable doesn’t really tell that much about larger trends where Russia would begin to lose ground more rapidly.

“It won’t be a large operational success where actual breakthroughs would be made and the Russians would be pushed dozens of kilometres back ... but it’s likely that the Ukrainians may be able to continue these offensives actions for some time and maybe liberate a few more villages.”

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Successful Ukrainian counterattacks were likely aided by a recent block on Russian forces’ access to Starlink, according to the ISW. Russian forces have relied on Elon Musk’s technology as a key communications line.

But Ukraine said last week that terminals used by Russian soldiers were cut off following talks between Kyiv’s defence minister and Musk, whose company SpaceX operates the satellite network.

Land will likely be at the forefront of talks this week as delegations from Russia and Ukraine meet in Switzerland to discuss elusive peace terms.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that the Russian team, headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, would cover the “main issues”, which he defined as “both the territories and everything else related to the demands we have put forward”.

Talks moved to Geneva after Abu Dhabi hosted two rounds of talks that both sides described as constructive but which failed to reach any major breakthrough. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian held land in the Donbas, while Ukraine insists it cannot give up land.

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Ukraine’s land gains on the battlefield may not spell a strategic shift, but they could give Kyiv a political edge going into talks.

Mr Kastehelmi said: “It’s possible that the counterattacks have a political side to them. They can now go to the talks and present themselves as an army that has not been beaten.

“They can present themselves as a fighting force that can still conduct counterattacks, relatively swift ones when compared to the general pace of this war.

“And they can say they have liberated many villages in a short time span and present themselves as a stronger opponent than the Russian narrative wants to paint them.”