The circus around Trump’s arraignment conceals a predicament for the Republican Party

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On the morning that Donald Trump landed in New York to face charges in connection with hush money payments to a porn star, a small number of his supporters gathered outside of Trump Tower to denounce the case against him.

Dion Cini, wearing a t-shirt with the words ‘ULTRA EXTREME MAGA’ emblazoned on the front, was typical of the small crowd assembled outside of his NYC residence on Monday morning.

“The indictment isn’t really against Trump, it’s against America,” he said.

It’s an argument that Trump himself has made many times since it became clear he would face criminal charges here, and one he made throughout his presidency. But in this case, at least it’s not one that has resonated beyond his supporters.

Beyond the circus of the arraignment, beyond Mr Trump’s multi-pronged effort to squeeze every last drop of publicity and fundraising dollars from this spectacle, and beyond the historic nature of the day, there is a rather simple story to tell here: it is that the filing of criminal charges against the former president is solidifying his hold on the Republican Party at the same time it distances him from the greater public.

That story is told in two polls released after the indictment was announced. A CNN poll from Monday morning found that 60 per cent of Americans approve of the indictment; that number includes 62 per cent of independents. Even 21 per cent of Republicans surveyed said they supported the indictment. Meanwhile, a separate poll conducted after the indictment dropped showed his lead over his nearest Republican primary rival, Ron DeSantis, surge by 26 points.

Mr Trump won the nomination for his party in 2016 by sucking up all the oxygen in the room — in every room. His outlandish statements and attacks on his rivals allowed him to dominate the news agenda to the extent that every other candidate was constantly forced to react to his latest outrage, leaving them unable to rise above the pack.

There now appears to be a very straightforward way for him to do the same again in 2024, a year in which he faces his first serious challenge from within his own party since winning the nomination eight years ago.

Without publicly declaring his intention to join the race, Mr DeSantis has been running a shadow campaign for the presidency, travelling around the country ostensibly to tour his semi-autobiographical book. His strategy of not confronting Mr Trump head-on while engaging in the same confrontational culture war attacks on liberals appeared to work, for a while. In early March, one poll showed him pulling ahead of the former president in several swing states.

That changed when the indictment landed. Any gradual shift of support towards Mr DeSantis appears to have been abruptly halted by the same kind of grievance narrative that propelled him to power in the first place.

Mr Trump told his supporters the filing of criminal charges against him was “AN ATTACK ON OUR COUNTRY.”

A subsequent fundraising read: “The Deep State will use anything at their disposal to shut down the one political movement that puts you first. But I promise you this: This Witch Hunt will backfire massively on Joe Biden.”

Republican leaders quickly rallied around the former president in the full knowledge that the price of failing to show unwavering loyalty would be the withdrawal of his support and an effective banishment from the party’s centre of power to the political wilderness.

Mr DeSantis himself could not avoid showing fealty and condemning the charges, calling the indictment “un-American” and threatening to refuse to cooperate with any extradition from Florida.

Mr Trump was also able to raise $7m from his loyal supporters in the wake of the indictment, according to his campaign.

On Monday, the day before the indictment, every news channel played rolling coverage of Mr Trump’s journey to his jet in Florida, his arrival in New York and his route from the airport to his tower. That wall-to-wall coverage will continue tomorrow, and the next day. Mr DeSantis has been robbed of oxygen, and Mr Trump’s persecution story has once again become the Republican Party’s raison d’etre.

But there is an underlying issue here for the Republican Party. Mr Trump has never won the popular vote. He lost his last election, in which he ran as an incumbent, with all the trappings of the White House. In between that loss and today, his supporters raided the US Capitol, he has been impeached, his party fumbled a midterm election they should have won, and now their nominal leader faces criminal charges. Not only that, but there are likely more charges to come, relating to other investigations into his efforts to overturn the election and handling of classified documents.

This week will be a circus. Mr Trump will be the subject of every bulletin and broadcast and he will likely make millions more dollars in fundraising before he leaves New York. He will emerge from this round of legal peril in a stronger position to win the Republican primary.

What doesn’t kill Trump will make him stronger, but in the long run, it may make his party weaker.