Democrats have the chance to steal a big red state — if they can get out of their own way

There’s an urban legend that Lyndon B. Johnson spread a rumor about his opponent having had an indecent experience with pigs. When a campaign aide told him they couldn’t say that because it was not true, Johnson — a Democrat who repped Texas in Congress for 23 years before ascending to the executive branch — supposedly said, “Of course it ain’t true, but I want to make the son-of-a-b**** deny it.”

Half a century later, Texas Senate races look no less nasty, and it might cost Democrats their chance to win the majority.

Democrats have a legitimate chance to flip the United States Senate in the November midterms. They have their dream candidate in North Carolina in former Gov. Roy Cooper. And for the first time in 30 years, Susan Collins looks like she could lose her seat in Maine.

And Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pulled off a major catch when he convinced former congresswoman Mary Peltola to run for Senate in Alaska. But even if they win all three seats, Democrats need one more flip to get 51 seats in November.

Enter Texas.

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While the Lone Star State has long been a pipe dream for Democrats and they last won a Senate seat in 1988, every element seems to be going their way.

Sen. John Cornyn faces a bruising primary against the state’s ultra-MAGA attorney general Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn, a former attorney general and judge, is the exact type of Bush Republican that the base of the GOP now despises. The Cornyn Lonestar Victory Fund has had to spend more than $52 million to save Cornyn before the primary next month.

But Paxton has tons of baggage rooted in his alleged infidelity, which led to his wife Angela, a Republican state senator, saying that she would divorce him on “biblical grounds.” So far, President Donald Trump has avoided endorsing in the Senate race, which leaves Cornyn twisting in the wind.

Combine that with Hispanics overwhelmingly disapproving of Trump’s economic and immigration policies and Democrats might have a legitimate shot, as a state legislative race this past weekend showed.

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But Democrats are embroiled in their own internal feud that could threaten their already remote opportunity to win the seat. And it comes as early voting begins in two weeks for a March 3 primary.

Let’s recap: Last year, Colin Allred, the former congressman who lost to Ted Cruz in 2024, announced he would try to run against Cornyn or Paxton. But when James Talarico, a Democratic state legislator from the Austin area, gained national media attention when Democrats decamped during Republican attempts to gerrymander the congressional map mid-decade, he overshadowed Allred.

All the while, Cornyn and Republicans began promoting the idea of Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Black congresswoman from Dallas who become a liberal media darling for her sharp-tongued attacks on Republicans, running for the Democratic nomination. Crockett announced in December, which prompted Allred to drop out.

But both candidates face significant downsides: As a white liberal from Austin, Talarico lacks ties to Black voters often needed to win a Democratic primary. And as a state legislator, he needs to build his name recognition, which means spending tons of money.

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Crockett, meanwhile, hurt her case with some Hispanic Democrats in Texas when she said immigrants do the jobs African-Americans won’t do because, “We’re done picking cotton.”

Despite this, the two had remained relatively civil. Their one debate last month featured no fireworks.

That changed this week when Allred, now running for his old congressional seat, posted a video of himself attacking Talarico after a Democratic TikToker named Morgan Thompson said that Talarico told her he had signed up to run against a “mediocre Black man” like Allred rather than an “intelligent Black woman” like Crockett.

That caused Allred to endorse Crockett, though Talarico vehemently denied it, saying Allred had rather run a mediocre campaign.

Sure, it’s no fornication with pigs, but it opened real wounds and fissures within the coalition that Democrats need to win: namely white city dwellers and African Americans. Bloody primaries often mean candidates will not unify in the general election and their supporters might not be as enthusiastic to vote for the person they opposed in the primary.

Republicans responded by licking their chops. Sen. Tim Scott, a rare Black Republican in Congress who runs the GOP’s Senate campaign arm, said, “Something ain’t white here.”

Cornyn seemed to relish the feud, tellingThe Independent “It’s real.” It appears that Republicans got exactly what they wanted with a bloody primary taking the heat off of Democrats.

But the Republican primary is no less of a cockfight right now. On social media this week, he blasted Paxton, who criticized him for being a money-suck.

“Ken, when this over, you will have nothing,” his campaign account posted. “Which turns out to be the same thing you offered to give Angela in divorce proceedings. This after you cheated on her multiple times.”