DHS funding is set to expire in days. Will Democrats hold firm or just kick the can again?

Democrats and Republicans in Washington are approaching something very familiar at the end of this week: A shutdown deadline.

The House and Senate began a two-week countdown at the onset of February, sidelining funding for the Department of Homeland Security into a short-term continuing resolution and punting it. Now, that deadline is drawing close and the Senate is struggling to reach an agreement around a plan for the longer term.

With ICE and related agencies now responsible for two fatal shootings of Americans in Minneapolis, where a massive immigration enforcement surge is underway, Democrats are eyeing a vote to extend DHS funding with varying degrees of distaste. Led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the opposition party presented Republicans with a list of demands for reforms to the agencies that include an end to masked agents, limiting the scope of raids, and the securing of judicial warrants for searches. Republicans have signaled openness to some of the demands, but call others non-starters.

Answering questions from reporters on Capitol Hill, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Monday that the two sides were making progress towards a deal, and added that he could be open to another short-term continuing resolution at the end of the week.

Sen. Mike Rounds, speaking to The Independent, added that a short-term CR was probably “the best we can expect” from the Democrats.

But there is still no definitive declaration from either party regarding how this plays out. The party has found some Republicans sympathetic to their desires to reform ICE and DHS amid Donald Trump’s mass deportation enforcement controversies, which are believed to be harming voters’ perception of Republicans ahead of the midterms, but it’s unclear whether Senate Democrats will hold out for all 10 points on their list or vote to re-authorize DHS funding after achieving only some — or none at all.

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The party’s Senate caucus, angering their House colleagues, backed down from a similar red line last year when a number of members broke ranks to end the longest government shutdown in history without forcing Republicans to come to the table and extend subsidies for Americans on Obamacare plans.

Over the weekend, Sen. John Fetterman told Fox News that he had no idea where his party’s red line actually was.

Commenting that it was unlikely Democrats would strike an agreement on all 10 suggested reforms, the Pennsylvania Senator told Sunday Morning Futures that he was unsure how much ground his party was willing to give, and added that a shutdown was likely at the end of the week.

“If I had to say now, they probably expect that there will be a shutdown because things are [...] committed to do that,” Fetterman said.

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With senators in both parties likely to accept a continuing resolution if a deal isn’t struck, that isn’t particularly probable. And Thune’s outlook for the likelihood of a deal being struck sounded much more positive on Monday than it did last week, when the Senate GOP leader floated a year-long continuing resolution to keep DHS funded at current levels, sidestepping the issue entirely. Some members are due to travel abroad for the Munich Security Conference at the end of the week, complicating the efforts to meet the deadline even further.

But progressives in the House, some of whom are adamantly opposed to funding DHS at all without even more dramatic changes, are still reportedly concerned that Senate Democrats have already given up too much leverage on the DHS funding fight, and are waiting to see what (if anything) gets hammered out.

And with Republicans’ lack of a public counter-proposal, it’s still totally unclear how far the GOP is willing to go to keep DHS open. Schumer made that clear last week, telling reporters: “Nothing will get done until we know what Republicans are for.”

In late January, the president told reporters at a Cabinet meeting that his team was in direct talks with Democrats to avert a shutdown. There’s no sign of that dynamic now, as the Senate has largely taken over the negotiating process. That could pose an issue for the White House, given that some GOP senators like Susan Collins have spoken out about the scope of the ICE operations taking place in states around the country and the president could be pressured to accept any legislation to keep DHS open that makes it through both chambers.

Thune blamed that silence on the Democrats on Thursday.

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“Our team, our folks have tried to get with them, to sit down at the table and with the White House to reach an agreement,” he claimed. “They’re not engaging.”

Jeffries, on Sunday, said the opposite was true. He added that his party’s caucus in the House was not willing to accept anything less than the full implementation of their 10 reforms for DHS.

“We haven't heard back from the White House or Mike Johnson or Leader Thune,” claimed Jeffries. “Either they're going to agree to dramatically reform the way in which ICE and other immigration enforcement agencies are conducting themselves ... or they're making the explicit decision to shut down the Coast Guard, shut down FEMA and shut down TSA, and that would be very unfortunate.”