Ditch Starmer to boost hopes of winning next election, say Labour voters in new poll

Keir Starmer faces a mass revolt from Labour supporters who say he should stand down to give the Party a chance of staying in power.

Asked in a poll if they would have a better chance of winning the next election if Starmer is replaced, Labour voters said ‘yes’ by an overwhelming three to one margin.

Equally damning, they say Starmer is the worst Labour Prime Minister in history.

And Manchester Mayor and ex Cabinet Minister Andy Burnham is runaway favourite among Labour supporters to take over from Sir Keir.

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They are the findings of a JL Partners survey for the Independent.

The Independent commissioned the poll after it emerged earlier this month that Labour Together, the Labour campaign group credited with helping Starmer win power, had secretly conducted a survey on his popularity among its members.

The results of the Labour Together survey have not been published.

But they are likely to mirror the results of the Independent poll, which included the same two key questions: should Starmer resign; and if so, which of a list of eight named potential alternative candidates should succeed him.

It comes amid continuing speculation surrounding Starmer’s future and a series of alleged plots by Labour MPs and Cabinet rivals to depose him.

Asked in the JL Partners poll if Labour would do better or worse at the next election if Starmer resigned, a total of 38 per cent of those who voted Labour in the 2024 General Election said it would do better, compared with just 13 per cent who said it would do worse. A further 39 per cent said it would make no difference, while 10 per cent were unsure.

Among voters from all parties, 29 per cent said Labour would perform better without Starmer, while 14 per cent thought it would do worse. Forty-four per cent said a change in leadership would make no difference, and 13 per cent did not know.

Astonishingly, Labour voters have even less faith in Starmer’s ability to win than among the wider general public.

The three to one margin among Labour voters in favour of him resigning to boost Labour’s prospects compares to a two to one margin among voters from all parties.

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A total of 39 per cent of Labour voters said getting rid of Starmer would make no difference to the Party’s election hopes; ten per cent did not offer an opinion.

Asked who should replace Starmer if he were to step down, 19 per cent of 2024 Labour voters chose Andy Burnham as their preferred successor. Angela Rayner was backed by 10 per cent, Lucy Powell by nine per cent, Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband by six per cent each, Shabana Mahmood by four per cent, Bridget Phillipson by three per cent and Darren Jones by two per cent. Fifteen per cent said they would not support any of the listed candidates, while 26 per cent were undecided.

Significantly, all of the top three alternative leaders picked by Labour supporters are to the Left of Starmer from a political perspective.

That might help Labour see off the challenge from the Green Party, which has seen a revival under new leader Zac Polanski.

But it could make it harder to stop Labour voters in the so called ‘Red Wall’ constituencies in the Party’s traditional northern heartlands haemorrhaging to Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform Party.

Notably, Labour voters in the North West are most emphatic that the Party would benefit by ditching Starmer: a total of 14 per cent of such voters in this region said Labour would do ‘much better’ if it replaced him.

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A total of 15 per cent of Labour voters said they would not support any of the eight suggested candidates; 30 per cent offered no opinion.

Mr Burnham was also the clear first choice to replace Starmer among all voters.

Starmer has made it clear he is determined to lead Labour into the next election.

However, even if he is forced out, currently Mr Burnham would be unable to stand in any Labour leadership contest because he is not an MP.

Under Labour rules, only MPs can run for leader.

Further evidence of Starmer’s unpopularity came when Labour voters were asked to rank him alongside all seven Labour prime ministers in the party’s history, dating back to the first, Ramsay McDonald in the 1920s.

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They judged Starmer to be the worst of all - with Tony Blair rated as the second worst.

In the Labour Together poll, members were asked to name politicians who stood ‘the best chance of leading Labour to electoral victory at the next general election’ compared with Starmer.

They were also asked to rank those they would be likely to back in a leadership race and asked for their views on a range of issues.

James Johnson of JL Partners said: “The results underline the degree to which all voters have lost faith in Keir Starmer. What will worry Downing St most is the belief that Labour would do better under a new leader is strongest among Labour supporters themselves.

“It suggests that unless the Prime Minister can win back their confidence there is a real danger he may be forced to step down at some point.

“Labour supporters appear to want someone who is more Left wing but there is no guarantee that is the best way to achieve electoral success.”

JL Partners surveyed 1,562 adults on December 13 and 14.