Will Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform convince wavering Tories to jump ship?

Kemi Badenoch was sipping a cocktail at the Johnnie Walker experience in Edinburgh on Thursday afternoon, allowing herself to enjoy a rare victory after what has been a tumultuous start to her leadership of the Conservative Party.

She had finally rid the Tories of one Robert Jenrick MP, whom she had defeated in a leadership race at the end of 2024 but who nevertheless remained her biggest rival for the top job.

Her shadow justice secretary had consistently broken ranks to further his own agenda, refusing to toe the party line and doing little to quash the continuing speculation that he was preparing to challenge her for the leadership once again.

After ousting Jenrick in a tweet, cunningly timed to coincide with Nigel Farage’s unveiling of his Reform leader in Scotland, it appeared the Tory leader had finally wrested back control of her party and, in turn, speculation about her own future.

By seizing the initiative, she had forced him to confirm his defection at an awkward and hastily put-together press conference with Farage.

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But, just as the state of emergency the party had found itself in for the previous 24 hours looked to be reaching a conclusion, Farage set an effective deadline of 7 May for any more defectors to join.

The Conservatives have a number of defection watchlists for MPs and peers – mostly made up of critics of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership or previous supporters of Jenrick’s leadership bid – and the party is now bracing itself for a potential torrent of departures.

“It could be game over by 7 May,” one senior Tory admits to The Independent.

But there is a genuine divide within Badenoch’s top team, as well as the wider party, over how to deal with defectors.

The unveiling of Lord Malcolm Offord as the Reform leader in Scotland yesterday – entirely overshadowed by the Jenrick news – was a case in point.

His defection late last year had been taken very personally by Badenoch’s husband, Hamish, who, while not at all public in his thoughts, is a major support for his wife behind the scenes.

The peer and former Treasury minister had been a friend of Hamish, working with him on fundraising, and was a regular house guest.

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There were calls from some Badenoch allies for the slash and burn tactics deployed against other defectors – such as former chair Sir Jake Berry and MP Danny Kruger – to be used against Offord, but the advice came back that “nobody knows who this bloke is”.

Nevertheless, sources say that Offord had left because he was “embittered” after he was overlooked for promotion to the role of leader of the party in the Lords.

“We have a number of people like that who don’t get what they want, throw the toys out of the pram and flounce off to Reform,” a source notes. Lord Offord denied the charge, calling it “utterly ridiculous”.

Nadhim Zahawi, who had reportedly been refused a nomination for a peerage by the Conservatives before being unveiled as Reform’s latest recruit this week, was another example.

But there is a view that the party needs a more nuanced approach.

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“We need to go on a case-by-case basis with these people. Some like Zahawi, we should be saying ‘good bloody riddance, you’re welcome to him Nigel!’ Others we should leave a way back for,” a senior Conservative source says.

While Badenoch insisted on Friday that no more senior Tories would switch sides, it is clear that CCHQ and the leader’s top team know that Jenrick won’t be the last Conservative defector to Reform. They just don’t know who will follow him – or when.

“All we can do is keep plugging away with Kemi getting better and more relaxed, the polling improving, and hope that will stem the defections,” admits one senior figure.

Reform, meanwhile, is ramping up its attempts to woo wavering Conservatives, with senior figures wining and dining MPs thought to be mulling a move to Farage’s party.

The Independent has been told by a senior Tory MP that they went out for dinner in recent weeks with Richard Tice, the Reform deputy leader, who tried to persuade them to come over. The MP, who was a close Jenrick ally, resisted the temptation because “the Tory party is my home”.

But a number of MPs and prominent former MPs have also admitted they have received calls from Reform asking if they are interested.

Tory insiders hope that, in contrast to Lord Offord, the brutal way in which Jenrick was sacked will make potential defectors think twice.

But there is some dissension in the ranks over the tactics the party is using.

Just hours after chief whip Rebecca Harris made the call to Jenrick informing him of his fate, a Tory MP said he had challenged her, protesting that the punishment against him was too harsh. As well as being sacked as shadow justice secretary and losing the party whip in parliament, he was also suspended from the party he joined at the age of 16.

But the Tory leadership staunchly defend the move, pointing out that someone who was planning to defect was showing no loyalty to the party – no matter how young they were when they joined.

What outraged some close to Badenoch was not just his defection but the secret plotting to undermine the Conservatives as he left.

Those who know her say that for all her feisty and decisive public reputation, she can be careful and cautious in her decision-making. “She is not someone who jumps to decisions,” a source says.

“That said, this did not take long,” they add.

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The consensus very quickly was that there was only one thing that could be done – to sling Jenrick out of the Tory party. Quickly, publicly and brutally.

His now former colleagues were pleased with the impact of their move to take the initiative – keenly aware that Farage had a press conference booked, ostensibly about the local elections, for Thursday afternoon – but recognise they may not get that chance again.

The decision was taken to release a video, of Badenoch making the shock announcement to sack Jenrick, at the same time as Farage was holding another press conference, this time in Scotland, unveiling, as hardly anyone noticed at the time amid the ensuing scrum, Lord Offord.

Party insiders were outraged that the speech they found, part of the evidence of the defection, included attacks on Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, and Priti Patel, the shadow home secretary. It is not thought that any other shadow cabinet ministers were specifically targeted, but there was shock at the personal attacks on people he had sat with in the shadow cabinet just the day before.

And that the speech also contained “pretty complimentary” praise for Kemi Badenoch.

One person involved in the planning to pull the rug from under Jenrick says: “So why then would you leave? There’s only one answer to that, which is your personal ambition. So that’s obviously been clear about Rob, as soon as he lost the leadership contest. He couldn’t deal with that in his own mind.”

Even those who count themselves as friends of Jenrick agree. There were warning bells over Christmas when it emerged he had not been in contact with at least one other Tory MP he would talk to regularly. Tories are now looking out for similar warning signs among some of their colleagues.

In the end, Robert Jenrick was late to be unveiled as the Reform’s newest star attraction, after getting lost on the stairs in the Millbank Tower in Westminster.

The block became the headquarters of Reform UK attempts to win the keys to Downing Street last year. But it was more famously used by Tony Blair as the hub of his hugely successful 1997 election campaign.

Jenrick was hiding from the assembled media on a lower floor. But he and his team had not bargained on the confusing staircases in the tower.

As Farage joked onstage that his new recruit might have scarpered already, it was left to the party’s treasurer, Nick Candy, the billionaire married to ex-Neighbours star Holly Valance, to reassure him that he was still coming.

Jenrick eventually found his way to Farage. It appears unlikely he will be the last disgruntled Tory to do so.