Why police could be merged into new mega-forces in efficiency shake-up

Two of the country’s most senior police officers have voiced support for a mass merger of the present 43 separate police forces in England and Wales into as few as 15 or even 10 regional organisations.

Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, and Gavin Stephens, chair of the National Police Chiefs Council, say it would improve efficiency and help the service make the case for more investment. Home secretary Shabana Mahmood has already indicated she is considering such plans. They’ll be controversial…

It’s based on familiar arguments about economies of scale. According to Rowley and Stephens, the current structure “quietly drains capacity from the front line and prevents the public from receiving the visible, effective service they rightly expect. We cannot make the case for the resources we need unless we undertake the reform that is overdue.”

For her part, Mahmood told a conference of senior police figures last November that “the structure of our police forces is, if we are honest, irrational”, leading to “disparities in performance”, such that policing in England and Wales is a “postcode lottery”.

If all goes well, it could create larger specialised task forces in areas such as armed units, roads and traffic (especially motorways), and organised crime. There could also be useful savings in procurement and managerial overheads, such as HR and finance.

Even if it were a good idea, Mahmood is trying to do too much, too quickly, in a basic public service. For example, she is already committed to scrapping the directly elected police and crime commissioners, extending her powers to sack chief constables, while trying to recruit, train and retain thousands of new officers – all with budgets under pressure. And how will the new regional forces mesh with redrawn local councils?

There are also problems of democratic oversight and local accountability, and the fresh danger of political interference from Whitehall.

Larger forces may be less responsive to local needs, and closure of more police stations and control rooms will be unpopular. There are few, if any, cases in history of a police restructuring leading to lower crime. Indeed, many people will look nostalgically on the days of even smaller units when every city or borough had its very own proud constabulary.

More subtly, there would be less local experimentation and innovation in policing methods that other forces could adopt, and the amalgamations themselves would incur substantial costs – not least in IT.

A mixed bag. Scotland’s SNP government replaced 12 regional forces, many covering huge geographical areas, with just one national force – Police Scotland – in 2013. A 2019 report by a Holyrood committee found that financial management had suffered, forecast savings hadn’t materialised, and the merger had created new but unclear lines of responsibility.

Mahmood is determined enough to try, but whether she’s tough and skilled enough to make reorganisation work cannot be known. Even if it were flawless, yielded substantial savings and reduced offending, it would still be deeply unpopular with an electorate broadly opposed to constant change. And any future foul-ups would be blamed on the complex reorganisation, making it a risky endeavour.