Are the troubles of Nigel Farage weakening Reform UK?

He has been around British politics far longer than any of the other main party leaders, but Nigel Farage has never before endured such sustained scrutiny as he has faced in recent weeks.

In one sense, it is a compliment to Farage’s resilience and the rise of his Reform UK that he is treated in this fashion: consistently well ahead in the opinion polls, set for more gains in next year’s elections in Scotland, Wales and the English local authorities. Farage is now a realistic contender to become prime minister, and he’s survived more scrapes than anyone can remember. But certainly things haven’t been going so smoothly lately…

Mr Farage has been reported to the police by a former member of his own team. His constituency branch of Reform UK is accused of exceeding the election expenses limit during his successful campaign to become MP for Clacton at last year’s general election.

Richard Everett, a former Reform councillor and member of the Clacton team, says there was an overspend relating to leaflets, banners, utility bills and the refurbishment of a Reform UK-themed bar in the campaign office. Mr Farage’s officially declared costs were £400 under the limit (based on the number of voters) of £20,660, but Mr Everett says the undeclared items mean the cap was breached by as much as £9,000. But he also says Mr Farage would have been “blissfully unaware” of any overspend.

Does this mean a by-election?

There’s a long way to go first, and Mr Farage might be able to distance himself from it despite signing a declaration that he had examined the expenses. And even if there was a by-election in Clacton, he’d probably be returned with an even bigger majority.

There have been negative stories about him and his party since the party conference season, and they’ve been difficult to deal with. One was about the source of the funds used to buy his house in Clacton and how his partner had obtained them. Mr Farage didn’t give consistent answers but denies any impropriety and has threatened to sue.

A further upset was the conviction and imprisonment of Nathan Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales, on charges of being bribed by the Russians to make speeches in the European parliament. He was a longtime Farage associate.

Other high-profile stories concerned Mr Farage’s behaviour at Dulwich College, where some former classmates accuse him of repeatedly making racist and anti-semitic comments. Mr Farage has offered various rebuttals and explanations about what went on “49 years ago” and his deputy leader Richard Tice has dismissed it as all “made up twaddle”. Mr Farage also attacked the BBC and ITV for hypocrisy, because they broadcast racist television shows in the 1970s. He also denies antisemitism by pointing to his backing for Israel.

On top of all that there’s also been a steady stream of news about the mishaps suffered by newly-elected Reform councillors trying to run local authorities with varying degrees of success.

It has been unhelpful, to say the least. But an arguably more damaging aspect is the way Mr Farage has handled the varied allegations: he often seems rattled, dismissive, peevish, aggressive and inconsistent – in short, not very prime-ministerial. Though it’s fair to add that his fanbase isn’t much bothered.

A bit. The conviction of Nathan Gill struck a particular chord because of Mr Farage’s past comments about how Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had been provoked by Nato expansion “poking the Russian bear” rather than the Kremlin’s imperialism. There’s also the residue of suspicion about Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

More broadly, Reform UK has lost some momentum. It has slipped in the opinion polls nationally, from an average of 32 per cent to about 28 per cent now. It’s still a remarkable showing; much higher than its position at the last election and about as popular as Labour and the Conservatives combined. Reform could conceivably be the main opposition in Scotland and Wales, though far less likely to be in office.

Don’t be silly. Having said that, the far right of British politics (like the far left) is notoriously prone to infighting, splits, factions and chaos, and Reform is no different. Historically, Mr Farage has fallen out with rivals (real or imagined) such as Robert Kilroy-Silk and the Tory defector Douglas Carswell (who preceded him in Clacton), as well as others more recently.

Thus, one of his newly elected MPs, Rupert Lowe, has already defected, while another, James McMurdock, left after allegations about his business dealings. Another prominent figure, the former deputy leader Ben Habib, has left to start his own party, Advance. Various Reform councillors have also been caught up in rows, resignations and ruckuses. The “professionalisation” of Reform UK remains a work in progress. A succession of defections to Reform by former Tory MPs tends to suggest Reform is merely a mark-2 Conservative Party, if not a home for deadbeats looking for their old jobs back.

On policy, Mr Farage has tried to make the party seem more fiscally responsible, but the promised Doge-style cost savings in local councils haven’t really materialised. Mr Farage’s signal achievement, Brexit, is more unpopular than ever and the party is also vulnerable on the NHS, its proposed programme of mass deportation for anyone with “indefinite leave to remain” in the UK, and lack of experience. It’s still not obvious exactly how Reform would “stop the boats”. Rumours of a pact with the Tories are also destabilising things internally; mischievously, Mr Farage has invited the Tory shadow minister Robert Jenrick (a “unite the right” advocate) to join his team.

Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch is starting to improve as Conservative leader and may well pull a few of her lost voters back. In short, Mr Farage is going to find the next few years much tougher than anything he’s known before. The next election is far away: Farage may find he has peaked too soon.