Could the Liberal Democrats form a pact with Labour to thwart Nigel Farage?

Gleefully untroubled by those who claim his publicity stunts demean his high office, as if Queen Camilla were proposing to do the splits as post-dinner entertainment at the next state visit, Ed Davey has been out and about again at his party conference in Bournemouth.

For no reason other than to provide journalists with a cringeworthy pun, he went beekeeping, hoping the nation would conclude the Liberal Democrats are creating a real buzz, in a hive of activity. If only…

Harsh. First, he’s virtually obliged to say stuff the other parties won’t or can’t. To take a topical example, he’s now in a position to congratulate the prime minister for recognising the state of Palestine, for which he has been calling for some time. He can also stick up for human rights, asylum seekers, net zero and the environment (in competition with Greens), the European Union, taxing bad things, and being rude to Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Second, he can promote neglected causes such as the needs of carers, where he can draw on personal experience.

Third, and most crucial, he can help keep Reform UK out of power. At the moment, polls suggest that only the sturdy Liberal Democrat “yellow wall” of parliamentary seats, mostly in the nicer parts of England, can prevent Nigel Farage running amok. Indeed, if the worst comes to the worst and Farage storms in, Davey might have to be leader of the opposition.

Everyone knows he would, but everyone also knows he can’t say so – though on Monday he refused to rule it out. He’s asked about it a lot, as are all Liberal Democrat leaders, because this dilemma never goes away.

At present, the Lib Dems don’t need to be contaminated with the unpopularity that has attached itself to Labour, so Davey is right to be coy. It wasn’t a relevant question at the last election, given the likely outcome, but things are more volatile now, so the question will become more pressing as polling day approaches. He’s also got a brash new Green leader to contend with, Zack Polanski.

He probably shouldn’t try and pretend he’s indifferent or “equidistant” between Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Farage, and indeed he acknowledges a “moral responsibility” to block the Reform leader. He can honestly point to areas of agreement with Starmer, and where there are more profound differences. He can also truthfully say he doesn’t know what our idiosyncratic electoral system will throw up next time around, and the election is years away in any case. If Labour performs as badly in 2029 as it did in 2010, arguably, no one can save them. Any pacts with the Greens would be more trouble than it’s worth.

One key lesson from the tuition fees fiasco (the party’s casual pledge to abolish them in 2010 was followed by joining a Tory government that tripled them) - is to keep a closer eye on policy commitments. Just in case.

Just as Farage is pursuing the socially conservative Leave vote, so Davey can afford to go more boldly after the socially liberal Remain vote and capitalise on Labour and Tory weakness in the Lib Dems’ target seats. There’s an audience for liberalism, though it may not always feel like it.

As for events after the next election, Davey was in the coalition cabinet under David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and carries the scars of well-intentioned cross-party cooperation in the national interest: voters love the idea, until it happens. A coalition with a weakened Labour government next time would carry different but equally serious risks. A looser deal, such as the 1977-79 Lib-Lab pact or a flexible “confidence and supply” agreement, would keep his options open and would be less likely to lead to another post-coalition period in the electoral wilderness.

But what if the only option to stop Farage was some sort of deal with Badenoch and the Tories? That would be awkward.

Buzz off. He might try to make more use of the talent in the parliamentary party, just as Clegg did with Vince Cable, briefly a major asset during the global financial crisis. However, the media is generally uninterested in the radical centre and all eyes are on Farage, much to Lib Dem annoyance.